Day One: Racing Post Card: The google doc with link to previous winner spreadsheet here:
2.30 –
3.05 – Coventry – Gisburn, looking an upto standard winner! But Dhabab, trnr4R & stats best for just the one run. & Cadamosto sneaks in ahead of Go Bears Go as minimum rpr 75%+ required – & top boy Frankie Dettori gets to ride just below required Tolstoy
3.40 – King’s Stand Stakes – I’ve tipped it, so Winter Power & been money to 5/s from 7/s since, might have to find an EW play?
4.20 –
5.00 – Ascot Stakes C2 (0- +12 East Asia, +11 To Be Wild, +9 Let Me Be, Postileo, +8 Trumpet Man, Smart Champion,
5.35 –
6.10 – Copper Horse H’cap C2 – +12 East Asia, +10 Taqareer, Prince Alex, +9 Nuits St George, Sleeping Lion, Rajinsky, +8 Viaduct, +7 Arthurian Fable, Lostwithiel, Cardano, Stargazer,
8 tips for Becky The Boo in the finale at Chepstow – somehow, I’m just not convinced. I came to the race looking to see if The Height Of Fame 20/s was worth a punt as she has Sadler’s Wells on both sides of her pedigree but looking at the figures:
Chantilly Haze best topspeed?
It wasn’t much of an AW bumper she won last time either: no Hendo ‘hotpots’ there let alone a couple of Flemensfirth runners, who seem to like it here:
Flemensfirth ‘Top Of the Pops’ @Chepstow
If the ground were ‘soft I could well be shouting for one of the Black Sam Bellamy mares but just remembered it was this – near enough – spring time a couple of years ago that Getaway first came to my attentions as a formidable sire in the bumper sphere especially and just looking at the recent form of the Nicky Henderson yard:
Fergal O’Brien’s Schiaparelli mare, Becky The Boo, could quite easily be running into something easily as good as when she was 4th at Newbury on her debut last November and one winner from 34 starts these last 14 days suggests to me at least that this race could present Parisian Blue with an opening…
We’ve got some qualifiers going in the 3.35 Uttoxeter Midlands Grand National:
Final Nudge – bidding to be the first 12yo since Knock Hill under ’11 07 in 1988, h’mm, well handicapped though and stable won it in 2017 with Chase The Spud.
The Two Amigos : just a bit over the trendy weight of under ’11 0, probably set for a place again?
Prime Venture: trainer 1-2-8, not bad but a 10yo ?
Trucker’s Lodge: trainer 1-2-4 worried about his weight but seems a dab hand with such and probs place again, 19/s
Doing Fine: 13yo, c’mon?
Ramses De Teillee: trainer 4-1-12 but weight?
Captain Drake: Ticks most boxes and tops the charts at a venue where they do well #cdg 12/s
Apply age & weight patterns just leaves the Captain
Day Four March 19th – Y’know what’s going to happen here? The@itv7 will go down at Lingfield – so best do the placepot as a saver. Oh well! All or nothing, as usual, I’ve either had a bad one, certainly a learning one, or…
I was due a bad one but we’ll be better prepared for next year for sure… GL
PS: For those like me who’ve forgotten, handicaps is where we used to excel..
Leg1 – 1.20 – Quilixios – EW fun Adagio
Leg2 – 1:35 L-aw – Zwelela –
Leg3 – 1.55 – Eclair De Beaufeu – EW Petit Mouchoir & Mengli Khan, more serious than ‘fun’ them!
Leg4 – 2.30 – Alaphilippe EW
Leg5 – 3.05 – Frodon EW has to be to produce a lsp on the day?
Leg6 – 3.40 – Stalker Wallace –
Leg7 – 4.15 – Shattered Love –
Other Races:- Other races: 4.50 Eglantine Du Seuil EW – If desperate Leoncavallo & Adjali EW fun – GL
1.20: Just using days since last ran & rpr’s – I got this down to Quilixios really with a nb Adagio…. If Goshen had stood up last year favourites would be safely in the black. Tritonic may swing the balance back but recent trends suggest a ‘fresh 28+ days from Leopardstown is more likely… Ah! While I is usually at loggerheads with the Racing Posts TopSpeed – the case is even more so when it comes to Irish racing, there does seem a bit of discrepancy between the UK & Ireland, so much so that basically, in Ireland you’re lucky to even get a speed figure so like as below if you should ever see an emboldened topspeed for an Irish runner as Quilixios here. It can often prove significant…. & then, looking at the race record of Henry de Bromhead [0-1-1 100% placed] compared to W Mullins [1-5-22 2/6 37% placed] – augurs well for Quilixios too….
1.55: – Fascinating contest – what with Petit Mouchoir carrying top weight with young Jordan Gainford taking off 7lb, oh & there’s a system, topweight / topspeed? 26’s – Tops the TS #cdg but then there’s Mengli Khan up there too & oh my Eclair De Beaufeu, rpr #cdg interesting battle of the figs & he’s only 8’s & I can’t believe we have a 6lb clear top-rated rpr in Darasso, trainer saying he needs & his cdg’s suggest as much ‘soft ? 40/s [Just had a look at the #cdg’s & Darasso, who is amongst the players is a 4lb clear top rpr – is 20/s & will do for norway this stage: March 8th] 11 days l8r & he’s 40/s ?
2.30: Did like Stattler but turns out a bit one paced at the finish whereas, if Paddy’s right about the ground: I like Spotlight’s comment about Alaphilippe “but assured stamina and a will to win are big selling points.” seems a tad inherent in most of the Class Of Sadler’s Wells –
3.05.: Favourite and dual winner Al Boum Photo solid but my notes remind me of 2010 winner, Imperial Commander with A Plus Tard 10/s EW end of January…. In the end there’s no alternative but to go EW Santini, been a price crash on APT & a visor added, might just do it.. Nah! Looking at the topspeed #cdg, I gotta go Frodon, horses for courses n all that…
4.50: Nope: the Irish again & fine performance here by Galopin Des Champs on his h’cap debut debut after a 6th behind Appreciate It last time: Video here:
“Hopefully by now the Irish will have taken all the big money and leave us some scraps in this lowly C2 – – Another fascinating contest – I could sit here all day n reminisce, if i hadn’t got myself on a stopwatch with deadlines to meet… So a fancy for the Coral Cup, Eglantine Du Seuil turns up here & as #cdg topspeed 5lb clear and while trainer Paul Nicholls is saying she got a lot of weight – they seem to do OK here, he has a 2-3-19 fair record in race & 7yo’s do OK too. J P O’Brien 1-1-4 in the race but neither of his 2 have any course experience unlike lesser race usuals in Pipe Leoncavallo 25/s & Henderson’s Adjali 33/s
Last Year:
Friday 13th – Just the Gold Cup & massive Nap landed!
Last Year:
Friday 13th – Just the Gold Cup & massive Nap landed!
1.30 Triumph – The video: A non-event in terms of time, if he’d have stood up he would not have achieved a bigger figure than he already had – Big Solo fan? Will trainer leave Sir Psycho in to ensure a true test? Yes! Hard to argue with RP’s Spotlight verdict, think the race will be set up for a differently ridden Goshen & under-rated Solo lol
THURSDAY 18th MARCHMARSH NOVICES’ CHASE1.20: ffMAX! Unbeaten, Envoi Allen – a lot of people’s idea of a banker but no speed figure, grrr… He’s 2lb clear on rpr’s ahead of that girt massive 13lb clear top speed figure Chatham Street Lad, who like the favourite entered for literally everything. Fusil Raffles not out of it either but been off for longer than the last 10 winners at least?
PERTEMPS FINAL 1.55: You have to go back 10 years since anyone below 138OR has won so maybe the RP(Nap) Storm Goddess a safer option than Come On Teddy who still clocked a personal best while beaten favourite & race not run to suit last time? Storm Arising and a David Pipe 6yo, Brinkley, are other interesting hopefuls.
RYANAIR CHASE 2.30 Feb 26th Alloha ticks most boxes so far… 6 & 7yo’s best record as too, 1st3 in betting, Fakir marginally better than Mister Fisher on #cdg’s but the latter has far more 1’s than 2’s to his name & he’s ahead of Allaho on cdg stats too but he’s not French bred, are we in line for a correction? Probs safer to dutch a unit stake between the three? As a fun aside, Venetia’s race record of 0-2-3 & his running in the Peterborough suggest a little EW
STAYERS’ HURDLE 3.05: Lil Rockefeller, early stages, ran right to previous best early season & surely #cdg ish! 33/s – A lot more fun than when old Big Bucks used to win it every year for sure but that’s a bit of a standout last time speed figure from last year’s shock winner Lisnagar Oscar. Rebecca Curtis has a decent looking 1-1-4 record in the race. I also like the odds about Lil Rockerfella, the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited last time but run before at Newbury suggested right back to 2017 33/1 2nd best [& which figs puts him amongst best in field] so 67/s worth a small EW
FESTIVAL PLATE3.40: Champagne Court 29’s £ 8yo b below OR140 EW chance says trainer & jockey a winner yesterday. Ideal conditions & topspeed, possibly best of these? Mister Whitaker 15/s 9yo 150OR, interesting back here says SpotlightTop Notch 26/s WO* H* 10yo ridden by 7lb Claimer 154OR?Happy Diva – £ 17/s fr 27/s ‘11 3 145OR b 10yo,Ideal conditions & trnr4R
DAWN RUN NOVICES’ HURDLE 4.15: – The Willie Mullins benefit race – won the last 5 runnings while A King 0-2-4 ? There’s two of the Sadler’s crew in this race and of his runners W Mullins says: “The drying ground will benefit Hook Up more than any of our horses this week.” ‘This week’ he says! But Paul Townend stays with Gauloise better stats than Danny Mullins 1/39? Meanwhile, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Martello Sky yet and is probably very capable of outrunning her position in the market & Bryony Frosty best jockey stats in the table.
FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR 4.50: Could be wrong but more likely a 7 or 8 yo & Venetia Williams’ Didero Vallis, only one of to have run a personal best last time, could be a worth an EW
Day Two March 17th – Probs just play Coral & Grand Annual today…
Leg1 – 1.20 – Bravemansgame –
Leg2 – 1.45 Hunt –
Leg3 – 1.55 – Monkfish, sacrificing a small EW acca for a crack at the impossible 200k. Fool!
Leg4 – 2.30 – Janika EW? EW fun Our Power & Boreham Bill [Go on Ben lad, GL]
Leg5 – 3.05 – Rouge Vif EW – First Flow EW fun
Leg6 – 3.40 – Le Breuil EW fun
Leg7 – 4.15 – Duc Des Genievres EW
Other Races:- 4.50 Cool Jet EW fun…
What a day ‘twas, a day for old rogues, rule breakers out en masse, the oldest Supreme for donkeys, I knew it really ‘13 years,’ lucky for some & so it proved for Appreciate It & wiley old veteran, Vintage Clouds & 80/1 winners, no chance! Yup! It all went on yesterday..
Situation after Day One – w-p-r – Mentioned 13 – 1-2-13 – 28/1 Vintage Clouds – 33/1 Eldorado Allen & Elham Valley 66/s placed. I was up on the day…
WEDNESDAY 17th MARCHBALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Hard to oppose Bob Olinger so up there on the figs in the Supreme but h’mm, Hard to believe Paul Nicholls has had only one runner in the race before: & while the Irish two look solid enough, points make prizes and there’s a fair chance Bravemansgame may not be so overbet?
RSA CHASE 1.55: I thought he was a best fit on stats & trends before Leopardstown February, Irish banker, for me at least, Monkfish, already being described as a future Gold Cup horse. Monkfish was best fit on trends & stats before he clocked a whopper last time – do I feel l brave enough to for the 2nd? Somewhere between Henderson’s race record with supporting figures & just about next best on the figures, The Big Breakaway, h’mm? CORAL CUP 2.30: Gotta do Janika here: looking a very similar scenario to William Henry, who did us so well in 2019 and his trainer, Nicky Henderson having won the last two runnings, looks to hold a strong hand again… Jonjo O’Neill marginally best trainer for race 0-3-6 but NTD 0-2-5 not far behind & Our Power better #cdg & odds & then this race as likely to fall to someone without history so no hesitation in nominating Boreham Bill, not far behind leaders #cdg wise, has Ideal Conditions & ran a personal best last time.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 3.05: Cracking race, possibly the most [0.20 clear of card] fast time qualifiers I’ve seen in one heat at any one time: Think it’s time for the old guard to step aside and make way for a new kid on the block tempted to go First Flow but at least we know Rouge Vif handles the track and possibly the ground over Put The Kettle On and twice the price..
GRAND ANNUAL CHASE 4.15: Like Embittered so far, March 9th – Amongst final #cdg 1st4 : but a clear top #cdg & previous Arkle winner for me, Duc Des Genievres, a fair EW price .
CHAMPION BUMPER 4.50: I’m not looking any further than a W Mullins 2nd or 3rd string that was made the Racing Post Star Performer last time out suggesting that he wouldn’t be out of it & given trainer’s record in the race and mine, in that it seems one of the hardest to call the winner: just a fun EW about Cool Jet 33/s should suffice. Kilcruit’s mighty rpr, Three Stripe Life’s topspeed & Elle Est Belle a ‘ffMAX, all respected..
Somewhere between between twitter, facebook, reduced fields, I mean, smallest Supreme field since? The covid, the government, oh no! On with the show.. Usually, unless I hit the winner of the Coral Cup, the first two days can be pretty meagre for me, so I not going overboard with much betting…
Day One March 16th – The @itv7 with some fun bet suggestions, might do decent price EW Yankee:
Leg1 – 1.20 – Metier – EW fun Grumpy Charley –
Leg2 – 1.55 – Shishkin / EW fun Eldorado Allen –
Leg3 – 2.30 – Pym – EW yankee fun Vintage Clouds –
Leg4 – 2.55 Sedge – Follow Your Fire
Leg5 – 3.05 – Epatante – EW fun James Du Berlais
Leg6 – 3.40 – Indefatigable EW & fun yankee
Leg7 – 4.15 – Nassalam EW & EW yankee fun Elham Valley
TUESDAY 16th MARCHSUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Metier, I think bc Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think: Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:& the case against Appreciate It: OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win
ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY 1:55: Can’t really see beyond Shishkin: Who knows? If it is ‘soft tmoz, my 40/1 Eldorado Allen is 0/5 but is a close 3rd on the #cdg’s?
Down to 6 runners and I can’t help thinking Eldorado Allen at 40/s is too big? It’s possible the race came too soon when beaten by Allmankind – being his 3rd race in quick succession last fall. It was hard to put a ceiling on Shishkin’s last run and I think Eldorado Allen is well handicapped so the fact he’s come here could mean business? Just get the feeling if it’s as plain sailing that Allmankind sets it up for Shishkin, he might just not be the only one overtaking at the finish..
FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE 2.30: Happygolucky, solid – I did like The Wolf till seen sire stats & now prefer Pym & Vintage Clouds EW
CHAMPION HURDLE 3.05: Haves wung back to Epatante, JP pulled his other 2 entries out & she was a good winner last year. This race could well be a case of ‘always bet on potential except in the best of races’ and last years’ running remains the best form on show. Willie Mullins thinks James Du Berlais, on his French form & rating is 1st 4 material, could be an interesting EW fun bet at 29/s if anyone offering extra places?
BOODLES JUVENILE HURDLE 4.15: Nassalam dg figs 20/s like bar weight & makes me think Elham Valley may do better against him in a h’cap only 4lb between them so odds silly? EW shot 50/s – hardest race I looked at – this a majority race for a quick return to the track – would like to see Homme Public run well.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE 4.50: Trainer, Ben Pauling, has won the race before and quite bullish about the chances of Nestor Park EW fun
🗣️"I think we’re pretty set that the Supreme is the right race for him.”@HarryFryRacing1 confirms Tolworth winner Metier will run in the @SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle plus If The Cap Fits has the @paddypower Stayers' Hurdle on his agenda 👇
Somehow I managed to miss The Opening Show, it was on I think but I didn’t notice it, twitter again? Like it mattered, we didn’t have the winner but Miss Heritage fared better than their:
& me, was going to go Miranda but siding with supersub Dickie & Miss Heritage for an EW GL
— Horseman of the Apocalypse (@themastarata) March 13, 2021
So anyway, the winner, Langer Dan, it was said didn’t have a hard race so might stand a chance next if he gets in & we know that bc even the fillies’ bumper was faster:
It wasn’t even a tip, just an observation: [tbh, have had a good week making use of this site, the statistics page over at Irish Racing but could another angle?]
Of course it doesn't work everytime but if a Kayf Tara was to beat a Flemensfirth @Sandownpark 3.00 more likely a chase than a bumper? & the same topspeed from twice as many runs? pic.twitter.com/o0IGK8XklD
— Horseman of the Apocalypse (@themastarata) March 13, 2021
And didn’t just win, ran faster than the Imperial Cup which has not happened since Call Me Star 2012 who ended up around the 137 mark, this Flirtatious Girl better than that too: and while winner’s of this race don’t often do much it would seem, we did have two of our Sadler’s Wells inbreds in 3rd Tweed Skirt on only her 2nd start & Step To The Top, whose 6th career resulted in worst positioning to date, actually achieved a personal best.
So, I’m designating this as a #Race2Follow and install another another angle of a page to the site – yah!
‘Time of & Figure of the meet’ was shared by these two for the tracker & noted as Ones to Follow when the mud is flying:
& that was a revealing in that a lightly raced for age well h’capped kind of run from Debece in the 3 miler :
1.20: – 80% fav will lose – 75% W Mullins horses not to place & no 7yo since 2008, Captain Cee Bee, 13 years lucky for some but
Metier, I think bc
Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:
Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:
2020 Shishkin by Sholokov (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) close 2nd, Abacadabras by Davidoff (Ger) by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells –
2019 Klassical Dream (Fr) by Dream Well (Fr) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)
2018 Summerville Boy (Ire) by Sandmason & a bit different?
2017 Labaik (Fr) by Montmarte (Fr) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)
2016 Altior (Ire) by High Chaparral (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)
2015 Douvan (Fr) by Walk In The Park (Ire) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)
So 5 of the last 6 winner’s sires have traced back to Sadler’s Wells (USA) – Ballyadam, [Bob Olinger 150OR & Soaring Glory are all similar in that respect whereas Metier – all better TopSpeed than Appreciate It too], his dam is by Authorized, by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells (USA).
Jeremy’s, Mister Fister Fisher 14/1, 2019 145OR, only one I can find…
Then there’s the Dosage Index, not an exact science but again, looking at the previous winners:
OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win& then there’s the Dosage Index & probably the reason he didn’t win last year too. Bearing in mind he has a DI of 3 just look at the DI column here, biggest in 12 is 2. Form anywhere else us pretty much insignificant. The hill after a fast pace 2 miles+ is the crunch & his breeding & his run last year, pretty much prove it. So, 6/4, value is it? I’m preparing an old pair of shoes to eat just in case..GL
And no winners with a Dosage Index of ‘3’ and hardly any with so few points. My guess is that it’s going to take one hell of a ride….?
Trends:
Won last time – 9/10 won last x 1 6th –
From: 3/10 Leop rest various –
Trainer 4 Race:
No. of Days:
Odds – Mostly between 5 & 12/s last year Shishkin was 5/2f fc won at 6/s
Age: You have to go back to 2008 to Captain Cee Bee for someone older than 6 winning so another serious negative for Appreciate It?
Wght/OR:
TopSpeed Adjusted / rpr Adjusted
Breds: French 5 Irish 5 GB 1
Inbreds: 7 of 11 Yes!
Dosage: Just about anything unlike Appreciate It:
Oh & just one more thing: I’ve started a new spreadsheet for those little sire/course observations: I’ve highlighted – a kind of WARNING! ‘Possible Lay material’ Reddish, those with more than 20 runners with less than 10% SR. Probably be shouting for Metier & Grumpy Charley EW, go on lad. Just another 50 odd plus courses to do… GL
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