Archive for the ‘Breeding’ Category

8 tips for Becky The Boo in the finale at Chepstow – somehow, I’m just not convinced. I came to the race looking to see if The Height Of Fame 20/s was worth a punt as she has Sadler’s Wells on both sides of her pedigree but looking at the figures:

Chantilly Haze best topspeed?

It wasn’t much of an AW bumper she won last time either: no Hendo ‘hotpots’ there let alone a couple of Flemensfirth runners, who seem to like it here:

Flemensfirth ‘Top Of the Pops’ @Chepstow

If the ground were ‘soft I could well be shouting for one of the Black Sam Bellamy mares but just remembered it was this – near enough – spring time a couple of years ago that Getaway first came to my attentions as a formidable sire in the bumper sphere especially and just looking at the recent form of the Nicky Henderson yard:

Fergal O’Brien’s Schiaparelli mare, Becky The Boo, could quite easily be running into something easily as good as when she was 4th at Newbury on her debut last November and one winner from 34 starts these last 14 days suggests to me at least that this race could present Parisian Blue with an opening…

#SuperSunday it was for the Class Of Sadler’s Wells

3/10 winners – again, blind faith probably the way to go with these: 17/2 Soaring Glory [becomes Fame And Glory’s 1st winner at Newbury], 6/4f Martello Sky & 13/8f Gustavian…

Image
Top boy: Soaring Glory
15 from 10 outlayed if back in singles

And this after Goshen took the Kingwell Hurdle on Saturday:

So just just about broke even on the day for all runners:

May be an image of text that says 'Sat 20 February Notachance (IRE) J: Tom Cannon T:Alan King Notachance (IRE) om Cannon :Alan King Ascot 14:25 Non-Runner Haydock Park 14:40 Navajo Pass J: Brian Hughes T: Donald McCain 11/2 Goshen (FR) J: Jamie Moore T: Gary Moore Wincanton 15:18 HILL 11/2 Wincanton 15:18 Boyle Riders Onthe Storm (IRE) J: Sam Twiston-Davies Nigel Twiston-Davies 11/4 Ascot 15:35 Pbetfer 18/1'
Goshen is back!

– We have suggestions for JLT, RSA, Pertemps & Coral Cup & of course the SDS of the bumper world…

Like Kempton’s National Hunt, I’ve a separate file for Cheltenham, this will include previous winners of last 10 year’s worth of festival races by around Monday evening 6th Jan20 – Plz bare with me in this race against time to have a launchable project ready for this March. My new motto ‘Under construction – work in progress!’ Just hoping I’ll have better luck than British Rail and don’t have to charge you so much lol
As another aside: I did nick the Tote Ten To Follow Master List Final 500 & after every major meet I’m updating, so if u go Master Updated & sort rpr descending u should get a comparison of my ratings against theirs. 

All much of a muchness this meet, best chase runs ran in defeat? So Champ as good as Cogry when he stands up and would’ve earned ‘Time of the Meet – XoM’ His overall figure possibly puts him alongside Lalor in Oldgrangewood’s race and about 8lb short of Saint Calvados [pic] who gets outright Figure of the Meet, 171+

[Pic: The @Harry_Whitt trained Saint Calvados after his brave effort in defeat under @gavsheehan92 @CheltenhamRaces ]

2.00 – Race of the Day! 
[A cracking finish to this competitive handicap chase with two noses separating the first three. Rock-solid form. – 
OLDGRANGEWOOD, [156 PB] a narrow winner over Kalashnikov off 7lb lower at Newbury, had no trouble confirming form with that disappointing rival, but he again really had to work for it, indeed it briefly looked as though he’d finish third as three of them flashed past the post together. He got it on the angle, though, and this tough 9yo looks to be at the peak of his career. He’ll presumably return for the festival in March, bidding to improve on his pulled up effort in the 2018 Plate and ninth in last year’s Ultima.Saint Calvados [171 PB] is a high-class handicapper who just seems to be found out in a higher grade. He ran a cracker on this step up in trip, hanging left but battling right to the line, and it was he who looked to have his head down at the right time crossing the line, but it wasn’t the case. He’s probably worth another go at graded level over this trip.Lalor [163+] was always struggling in the Haldon Gold Cup on reappearance and this step up in trip very much looked in his favour. He showed what he is capable of, putting in a good round of jumping in the first-time cheekpieces and really knuckling down having been headed to put himself in the three-way photo. He’s a good-ground horse who could land a big handicap in the spring.Ex Patriot, [156+] a smart sort in Ireland who was just over 8l behind Battleoverdoyen last time, had won his only previous handicap and he ran well for a long way, just backing out of it after a late mistake. There’s a decent prize in him.Mister Whitaker [158 =PB] likes it here, but was reappearing from a career-high mark and he just looked in need of it. He isn’t easy to place off this sort of mark, but can do better than this.Cepage failed to reproduce the form on his last-time-out Caspain Caviar run and shall remain vulnerable from this sort of mark.Magic Saint appreciated a good test at 2m last time but was up 7lb in a better race returned to a longer trip and he failed to shine. He’ll presumably in the Grand Annual at the festival.Kalashnikov, just denied by OLDGRANGEWOOD at Newbury, was up 6lb and looked vulnerable from a mark of 161, but still he ought to have done better, making a couple of mistakes before dropping away. He’s clearly better than this, but another who isn’t easy to place.Ok Corral looked the type to be suited by the drop in trip and he was still going along nicely until blundering and then getting hampered at the fence on the top of the hill. He was unable to recover, so looks worth another chance. [Mark Brown]QUOTES: OLDGRANGEWOOD had a wind op in the summer, which he needed and Dan said he thought it made the difference. Getting the headgear and sticking to 2m4f also helped, while he had an interrupted season last term. We’d love to come back here for the festival. He looks great and is the right age now, so this could be his season – Chris Giles, part-owner.

1.25 – I’m just wondering what will happen to Paint The Dream’s handicap mark?
Late drama in this Grade 2 novice with red-hot favourite Champ [163+] falling two out when seemingly on his way to a convincing win.MIDNIGHT SHADOW was winning at the fourth attempt over fences, although he enjoyed a large slice of fortune with Champ coming down. He was under pressure and keeping on, but wouldn’t have won anymore than bustled up the favourite. He’s a useful novice who will presumably be trained with the JLT in mind.Paint The Dream, [156] runner-up from a mark of 127 at Sandown last time, ran above himself on this rise in grade, although it was a bit of a strange performance as having led early then dropped well off the leaders, he finished strongly up the straight to nab second. He was likely flattered, but is clearly progressing.Deyrann De Carjac [155] is a strong-traveller who ideally wants good ground and a flatter track. He ran okay, but wasn’t going to run to quite the same level as when a close-up third to Champ at Newbury. There’ll be other days for him in the spring.Champ, bidding to make it 3-3 over fences, had taken well to the more positive tactics and threw in a few fine jumps that saw him go into a clear lead, but he got two out wrong and paid the price. This was a most unfortunate spill for the ante-post RSA favourite, and connections will presumably seek to get another run into him now before the festival. [Mark Brown]QUOTES: Champ was brilliant through the race, but just rolled around a bit going to the second-last and I’d say he was looking at the stands and not what was in front of him. It was a novicey fall. Hopefully he’s okay and that (the novicey fall) was all it was – otherwise he was brilliant – Barry Geraghty, jockey.

12.50 – A fair staying chase, no more, and the form horses came to the fore.
DOING FINE [148] ‘winner’ of the well documented void race at Sandown last time, had next to no weight on his back and gained compensation in good style, moving into it gradually and really racing away from the last. He’s long been a useful sort on his day and, although now 12, should remain competitive in similar events.Cogry [162p], winner of a better race over a similar trip at the course last time, was up 4lb and ran okay considering he was conceding a ton of weight to the winner. He ran on again having hit a flat spot, but was never in with a chance of touching the winner.9yo > Like The Sound [158e] fared even better than the result suggests, defying 33-1 odds to take over going best only to fade from the last. He’s proven over further, so stamina shouldn’t have been an issue, but still this run shows he’s capable from this sort of mark.Militarian recovered from a notable early mistake and several more that followed, to hold a chance racing down the hill, but he understandably ran out of puff in the straight.Equus Secretus ran okay up to a point on this second run back, although he appears to have little in hand from his current mark.

Of the hurdles, I know Matt Chapman wasn’t happy and this as good as it got 141p the front two and perhaps a contender for the Coral Cup:

12.15 – Not a particularly strong Listed novice, especially with the standard setting favourite disappointing, and there was controversy with the Stewards flipping the result after original first past the post Protektorat edged across Imperial Alcazar on the run-in.Imperial Alcazar, upset by a 66-1 shot at Newcastle last time, had a first-time tongue-tie added and his rider wisely took a wider route on fresh ground for much of the race. He needed assistance from the Stewards, but this big, galloping sort was undeniably done few favours as Protektorat edged across him, forcing him to switch, and he nearly got back up anyway. Chasing will very much be his game in time and he’s a really useful prospect.Protektorat appeared to have finally broken a frustrating sequence of runner-up efforts, relishing the step up in trip and holding on well, but the Stewards felt the interference caused was significant enough to have altered the outcome and he was demoted. Some will argue it was harsh, indeed horses have done much worse yet been allowed to keep a race, but compensation will surely be had before long and he could develop into a leading Coral Cup contender.Welsh Saint, a 15l winner at Warwick, came up short against a much higher grade of opponent, a mistake two out sealing his fate. He’s one for decent handicaps later in the season.Ofalltheginjoints, well beaten in a Grade 2 at Sandown, again came up a fair way short and he’s another for whom handicaps will suit, especially once upped to 3m. Chasing will be his game in time.Redford Road set the standard on last month’s 3m Grade 2 win here, even under a penalty, and he was understandably ridden forward, but he made mistakes late and faded rather disappointingly in the straight. Perhaps the change in tactics didn’t suit, but regardless it was a disappointing effort.Grand Mogul got warm beforehand and was beaten a long way. He’s failed to shine in two starts since joining Nicky Henderson, but is a good-looker who will no doubt figure it out eventually. [Mark Brown]QUOTES: I’m not going to focus on the stewards’ inquiry. I was delighted with how Imperial Alcazar ran. I don’t care how he won it, he’s come out on top. Stewards’ inquiries are like penalties, you win some you lose some. Today was our day. I’ve lost plenty in the past so we’ll enjoy today. I think the best horse won the day – Fergal O’Brien, trainer.We’ve had to give Protektorat a bit of time and it hasn’t happened overnight for him. He came to France with a big reputation and is quite headstrong. He’s probably not as quick as he thinks he is so Harry has had to educate him every time he’s ridden him and drop him in. We’ve been unlucky losers twice this year but everything we’ve done for the horse is for the future. Hopefully he can keep progressing – Tom Messenger, assistant.

So it’s Skandiburg for the Pertemps? Not really backed up by the clock this race?

& his Dosage is all wrong: 

Would be a rarity on that alone? DP = 2-4-3-3-0 (12) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.42 – 

2.35 – A useful staying hurdle and the right horses came to the fore. Sound form.
SKANDIBURG, up 6lb for a win over the trip at Aintree, didn’t always look to be going that well, but he really came strong in the straight and ultimately got well on top. A useful and progressive 6yo, stamina is clearly his strong suit there should be more to come. He ought to make a nice novice chaser in time, but the Pertemps will be his big aim this season.Rapper, up 11lb for winning at Market Rasen, was never far away and very much enjoyed the run of the race. He stayed on well, but couldn’t repel the winner late. He has a similar race in him from this sort of mark.Kilbricken Storm, winner of the 2018 Albert Bartlett, has had his struggles since yet connections still held high hopes for him heading into this season. He ran well, holding every chance down to the last.The Jam Man has been on a roll but a 16lb higher mark for this return to Britain proved beyond him, already being beaten when hampered late. It was still a good run.Constantine Bay ran about as well as could have been expected in what looked a hot race for him returned to hurdles.Mason Jar is high enough in the weights now and his stamina didn’t last over this new trip.Who’s My Jockey, ex-Philip Hobbs and off since winning over fences in the summer, was returning in a first-time tongue-tie and he ran well for a long way, perhaps just needing it. He’ll be of some interest next time.Beware The Bear, fourth in the Hennessy, is on a tough mark over fences now but he doesn’t have the speed to win over hurdles.Might Bite stopped quickly late on and his career remains off track.Goodbye Dancer, up 10lb for winning over C&D last month, had crept into contention going well and looked set to play a big hand in the finish until getting the last all wrong. Hopefully his confidence won’t be dented by the spill. [Mark Brown]QUOTES: Don’t underestimate the ride SKANDIBURG got. Gavin kept nudging along and never went for his stick. If he’d got another few pounds at Aintree we wouldn’t have even been here. I’d have saved him for the Pertemps. We’ll freshen him up for that now and he won’t be far away in March. I think he’ll thrive in a big-field handicap – Olly Murphy, trainer.

3.50 : A muddling Listed bumper, the form of which looks ordinary.AUDACITY, [129+] hammered by Grand Roi at Wincanton, being beaten 15l at the line, went from the front himself this time, down slightly in trip, and he kept going under a strong ride to notch an all-the-way success. The form is questionable, but he looks the sort to do well hurdling in time.Ocean Wind, a surprise winner at Huntingdon on November’s debut, moved into it from off the pace and threw down a strong challenge, but he was always just being held. He’s Flat-bred, so could go on the level at some stage, although there is a winning jumper in the family too.Genola, a dual AQPS winner in her native France, like the runner-up made nice progress to challenge but couldn’t quite get past the enterprisingly ridden winner.Grand Roi made all and really pressed on when slamming the winner by 15l at Wincanton, but he didn’t go from the front this time, despite the drop in trip, and he simply didn’t have the required pace once in line for home. He’s the best long-term prospect of these and will appreciate going hurdling sooner rather than later.Fair Star, a winner at Market Rasen on debut, performed admirably against stiffer opposition on this second run. He’s another Flat-bred with options moving forward.Belle De Manech, a winner over the trip at Warwick on debut, had a tongue-tie on for the first time but came up well short, like the favourite being readily done for speed in the straight. She’ll be happier over 2m and then once hurdling a little further down the road. [Mark Brown]QUOTES: AUDACITY has experience and has run a bit green the last twice. I thought that was having horses around him, so we kicked him out and let him roll. He stays very well and Gavin is the best rider in a bumper from the front; he’s head and shoulders above everybody. He’s cute and they think they’re getting to him, but he’s saving a bit. I’d say we’ll stay in bumpers and he’s got plenty of ability. He jumps well and he could run on the Flat – Warren Greatrex, trainer.

3.10 – Putting a dampener on the whole meet imho as this was the 2nd fastest hurdle on the card. 
“Bit of a turn up in what looked a fairly weak edition of the race, although the first three home were all past festival winners. The pace steady enough.
SUMMERVILLE BOY, the 2018 Supreme winner, has generally struggled since and was a faller over fences last time. He made every yard returning to hurdles, though, relishing the return to 2m4f and showing a good attitude. He did enjoy the run of the race, though, and future targets are unclear, with him having a few different routes on the table.Roksana, winner of last season’s Mares’ Hurdle, bounced back from a disappointing run at Ascot and emerges with plenty of credit considering she had a penalty. A better ground would have suited and she’ll likely go well attempting to defend her crown in March.William Henry, winner of last season’s Coral Cup, could have done with a truer gallop but still emerges with loads of credit at the weights. It was his first start since April, so he should come on.

I don’t do ante-post much (maybe if I see something that hasn’t run yet in the Triumph Hurdle E’s in Feb) but Timeform got a portfolio going:
Recommended bets:
Back CHANTRY HOUSE at 16/1 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle
Back SLATE HOUSE at 14/1 for the RSA Chase
Prices available at time of writing.
Previously recommended bets:
DELTA WORK at 20/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup (now 10/1)
DEFI DU SEUIL at 10/1 for the Champion Chase (now 4/1)

Four to follow for year from itv team


Tolworth Hurdle Saturday – Trends:

8/10 – won last time

9/10 – ran in December

8/10 – won ptp or bumper

7/10 – 7/2 or shorter

It just keeps getting better as I putting Friday’s extension together:

Lol, so while I’ve been avidly noting Sadler’s Wells(USA) inbreds and adding to a spreadsheet – no fewer than three of his predecessors’ as Sire in Chief – Northern Dancer(Can) had a field day at this meet. The fact that the 11yo Regal Encore(ire), has been and done it here before – gives hope to his younger, proteges, 1st and last race winners, Flowing Cadenza and Not So Sleepy, that they too could follow in his hoofprints. 

Probably the most interesting thing from this meeting is the Timeform Time Figure alloted to The World’s End of 107 because they adhere very closely to the Official handicap scale. I have no access to the rest of the card according to Timeform Time Figures but I would be very interested in seeing what they gave to Nor So Sleepy – because according to the Racing Post’s standards – Not So Sleepy ran 58lb better than that ‘107’

‘Where’s the ceiling?’ ‘Leaving a ‘stone’ in the bank?’ Who on earth will understand?

I initially gave Not So Sleepy 152p, then upped to 154p within the RP site but that 107 & 58lb – read alongside the comments below, I may well have left ‘10lb to a stone in the bank?’

154 suggests the 4th home Turnpike Trip ran to within a pound of the figure I gave him last time in his native Ireland and that Monsieur Lecoq(Fr) ran a well clear Figure Of the Meet, with or without his jockey claim – I’ll have to go and #RacetoFollow this one…..

1.15 – Always a decent chase and the form looks sound. Another big step forward from the impressive winner.
RIDERS ONTHE STORM put this to bed in fine style and is clearly a fast-improving chaser. He came in after an admin error forced him to sit out the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham a week earlier. The 6yo’s jumping was particularly impressive and it’s not hard to see why he’s the apple of Nigel Twiston-Davies’ eye. The Ryanair in March is the big target, for which he’s a best price 16-1.On The Blind Side couldn’t live with the winner after the second-last and probably did bump into one here. It puts him back on track, although he’s not simple to place.Paloma Blue failed to raise his game and seemed to find this too testing.Adrien Du Pont likes it here and is very useful on his day, although doesn’t want the ground this deep. [David Orton]QUOTES: The Ryanair is definitely on the agenda for RIDERS ONTHE STORM. He may come back here for the Ascot Chase in February. He’s looking like a very cheap buy and is our most exciting horse. He settled well and jumped his way to the front. He doesn’t quite settle enough to go further yet but he will do. It’s really exciting and he wasn’t stopping at all at the line. His jumping was superb – Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer.

3.35 – Add 16yds. A cracking prize. Predictably there was a solid gallop on and it proved one-way traffic. The winner closed in on the level expected from his Flat form.
NOT SO SLEEPY was still attractively treated on Flat form despite a 5lb higher mark and the classy 7yo took this apart with another outstanding effort from the front. He needs to dominate, but wasn’t quite as headstrong this time, getting in a breather around three out. That proved crucial, but handicaps like this are rarely won with such ease and he has to be a huge player for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury now.Monsieur Lecoq was turning out quickly again and gave the winner 23lb back in a handicap. He had his ground, did well to run on for second after being hampered and rates a rock-solid benchmark.Sir Valentine tanked along under a patient ride and turned in a respectable effort. The 6yo should learn from the experience and has kicked off in handicaps on a workable mark.Turnpike Trip, fourth in the Royal Bond 20 days earlier, looked a big player turning in. He lacked a change of gear nearing two out, however, and looks worthy of a step up in trip.Whoshotthesheriff, back down in distance, flattened out in between the last two flights and likely paid for a wide trip. He’s not one to give up on.Quoi De Neuf, popular in the ante-post market, had still to be asked any sort of question when brought down. [David Orton]QUOTES: I thought NOT SO SLEEPY was going well turning the bend so off he went and trounced them. He jumped fantastically at Henrietta Knight’s last week but struggled a bit early in the race because of the ground. It’s up to the horse how fast he goes and he wasn’t silly. He won it really well and moved beautifully across the ground. He won the Dee Stakes on bottomless ground in 2015 and I suspect this was deeper. We won this race 18 years ago with Marble Arch who disappointed at Newbury and then came second in the Champion Hurdle so you can only but dream that’s the ultimate objective. He didn’t carry a lot of weight but he won with a stone in hand. Why not look forward? He’s eight so there’s no point messing around with novices and handicap hurdles – Hughie Morrison, trainer.

1.50 – This looked highly competitive on paper, but the winner proved far too good. The third sets a decent level.
ESPOIR DE GUYE made a mockery of his 9lb hike for landing the odds at Exeter 15 days earlier and provided his red-hot stable with another winner. The young chaser is firmly on an upward curve and looks just the type for the novice handicap on the opening day of the Cheltenham festival in March, although soft ground could be important to his cause.My Way did all his best work from the second-last on this drop back in trip and there’s no doubt a fair pot in him back over a stiffer test.First Flow proved a sitting duck for the highly progressive winner but wasn’t at all disgraced on this quick return. The consistent 7yo again shaped as though reverting to a left-handed circuit might prove ideal.Cap Du Nord was never a serious player, but ideally needs a sounder surface. [David Orton]QUOTES: ESPOIR DE GUYE has the action for the ground. This was a step up from what he had done before. Having a look where to go next will be exciting – Venetia Williams, trainer.

Now there’s a recipe for success? undefined

Amazing little horse, dual Grand National winner and four-time Cheltenham Festival wins from as a 4yo 17f’s to a 7yo the four mile National Hunt Chase and later the last two runnings of the Cross Country Chase.

So what’s he got that others haven’t?

(3×3) Inbred to Sadler’s Wells(USA)

Oh right! A major Sadler’s Wells influence – Champion Sire 13 years in a row from ’92-2004, I remember when Synchronised won the 2012 Gold Cup, he became the first stallion to have sired both a Derby & Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in 2012. Listen to what his jockey, A P McCoy, said of him afterward and when you read, think of Tiger Roll a little:

“He doesn’t have the physique to be a horse that’s going to travel in a Gold Cup, but he’s all heart and will to win,” McCoy said. “It was just about tagging on to the back of them for as long as I could, and I knew that he was going to come home better than any of them.
“It’s crazy to say it, but he’s not really a chaser. You only have to look at him to realise that, but I just wanted to get to the other side of the fences as quickly as possible and not ask him too many big questions as far as jumping was concerned. I was niggling, slapping and cajoling him all the way round. I was never going well, but I was never in a position I couldn’t win from.”
Sound familiar?

And I think it could be something we are going to have to get used to:

I’ve had a thing for Allmankind for a month or so now and have been aware that the trainer of the 2nd that day also has Goshen, who, at the time, hadn’t produced a decent enough speed figure in my opinion to warrant being ahead in the Triumph Hurdle betting but that has since been rectified & alas:

And then, this weekend, the 3rd home that day, Repetitio, he goes and beats older horses, in joint fastest hurdle race time at Cheltenham on Friday. Seems he’s pretty well related too:

Only a (3×4) but still significant me thinks…

And then, while doing Saturday’s results, lo and behold, winner of the feature race, Warthog:

Same again: (3×4)

So I get to thinking, hey! There’s a classy bumper at Navan later, I wonder…. Guess what? Dewcup:

He’s one too – a (3×4) anyway….
& this chap makes a point of ‘Class’ being the major influence but

Related article: “In future, as the influence of Sadler’s Wells shift to further generations, the number of black-type winners will naturally grow. Frankel could be a strong impulse to whom breeders sent many mares with the influence of Sadler’s Wells in their pedigrees. But we will have to wait one more year for this.”
Miloslav Vlček
Posted 06/30/2015

Flat related but Enable in the club too:

More reading a search for Sadler’s Wells inbreds: