Metier To Land Supreme

Posted: March 11, 2021 in Uncategorized
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SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE with previous years:

1.20: – 80% fav will lose – 75% W Mullins horses not to place & no 7yo since 2008, Captain Cee Bee, 13 years lucky for some but

Metier, I think bc

Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:

Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:

2020 Shishkin by Sholokov (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) close 2nd, Abacadabras by Davidoff (Ger) by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells – 

2019 Klassical Dream (Fr) by Dream Well (Fr) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

2018 Summerville Boy (Ire) by Sandmason & a bit different?

2017 Labaik (Fr) by Montmarte (Fr) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2016 Altior (Ire) by High Chaparral (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2015 Douvan (Fr) by Walk In The Park (Ire) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

So 5 of the last 6 winner’s sires have traced back to Sadler’s Wells (USA) – Ballyadam, [Bob Olinger 150OR & Soaring Glory are all similar in that respect whereas Metier – all better TopSpeed than Appreciate It too], his dam is by Authorized, by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells (USA). 

Jeremy’s, Mister Fister Fisher 14/1, 2019 145OR, only one I can find…

Then there’s the Dosage Index, not an exact science but again, looking at the previous winners: 

OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win& then there’s the Dosage Index & probably the reason he didn’t win last year too. Bearing in mind he has a DI of 3 just look at the DI column here, biggest in 12 is 2. Form anywhere else us pretty much insignificant. The hill after a fast pace 2 miles+ is the crunch & his breeding & his run last year, pretty much prove it. So, 6/4, value is it? I’m preparing an old pair of shoes to eat just in case..GL

And ‘erm: Appreciate It & Mister Fisher are very similar: 

And no winners with a Dosage Index of ‘3’ and hardly any with so few points. My guess is that it’s going to take one hell of a ride….?

Trends: 

Won last time – 9/10 won last x 1 6th – 

From: 3/10 Leop rest various – 

Trainer 4 Race:

No. of Days: 

Odds – Mostly between 5 & 12/s last year Shishkin was 5/2f fc won at 6/s

Age: You have to go back to 2008 to Captain Cee Bee for someone older than 6 winning so another serious negative for Appreciate It?

Wght/OR:

TopSpeed Adjusted / rpr Adjusted

Breds: French 5 Irish 5 GB 1

Inbreds: 7 of 11 Yes! 

Dosage:  Just about anything unlike Appreciate It:

Oh & just one more thing: I’ve started a new spreadsheet for those little sire/course observations: I’ve highlighted – a kind of WARNING! ‘Possible Lay material’ Reddish, those with more than 20 runners with less than 10% SR. Probably be shouting for Metier & Grumpy Charley EW, go on lad. Just another 50 odd plus courses to do… GL

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