Low grade fare but it just happened again. Scouring the all weather results from Saturday 20th Feb and I note Helmet / Beat Hollow. Yup! A Sadler’s Wells inbred and a mare.. Up until this point – a once 3rd from 17 starts and I thought, I bet…
Here's a thing! Ballycallan Fame won @WetherbyRaces boxing day & Heaven Help Us won last weekend 16/s fr 33/s – both Sadler's Wells inbred mares with headgear* first time. So Sat just I note a similar inbred, a mare & thought, I wonder if & yup H*> 0-1-17 https://t.co/ptUGQwvOkz
3/10 winners – again, blind faith probably the way to go with these: 17/2 Soaring Glory [becomes Fame And Glory’s 1st winner at Newbury], 6/4f Martello Sky & 13/8f Gustavian…
Have done something different here – put the rpr’s in Blue & the TopSpeed in Black and have concluded that Perfect Candidate doesn’t really deserve to be such a price and could reward EW backers…
As Ben Hutton writes in the Post:
Blame Ben if it loses x x xPerfect Candidate similar figs twice the price
Well, the Class Of Sadler’s Wells enabled a few runners to escape the lockdown yesterday and while they didn’t manage a win:
Elvis Mail, sure put on a show & made the #fasttime tracker too…
I don't mind losing when you're trying to give the winner 13lb & he clocks a time 0.30spf faster than the rest of the card & only beaten 3l's – Elvis Lives! 14th career & only 3rd chase – start. Clear top 'figure of the meet' performance! https://t.co/VtyghGhD17
8 favs currently sub 2-1 for the Festival- how many of them win, and how would you rank them all in order of how close they are to “banker material?” Says Lewis
Standard for our times? You’d think in this day and age
‘If I just keep typing, it’ll save my head from the scratching?’
Jan 30th 2021 – The Skybet Chase:
A Timeform Rating 151 but Time Figure 117 & I left Cap Du Nord in as he broke a track record on his last run – hardly slouches?
Timeform’s feature RP’s winning times
Shishkin 17lb better rpr but 48lb better of the next chase on the clock? Beat the clock says Simon Rowlands:
February 15th 2021 Warwick Castle Chase Day:
A Timeform Rating 152 and Time Figure 143, arguably better than Takingrisks ?
Timeform’s feature
and the clock says:
Warwick’s Times
Allmankind 7lb better rpr but 49lb better on the clock?
So, aside from rendering all the other figures in the ‘TS’ column, ‘useless,’ – [besides measuring pounds between?] I mean, where do they fit on the official scale? Here we have two horses running 50lb clear of their respective cards.
According to speed figure maestro, Andrew Beyer, we should be able rate a meeting about one or two reliable benchmark horses: saying Sky Pirate a solid 150, 165 about Allmankind, seems fair enough but at this stage, I think Eldorado Allen, 9l’s 2nd to Shishkin, leaves him still well handicapped off an official 149.
There was one little method that pin-pointed the Skybet Chase winner, Takingrisks, that of the old Nick Mordin, National 1st4 System, latest qualifiers (highlighted pink) and Aintree Entrieshere and updated as they go #CDG’s (Course, Distance & Going figures here. Main Racing Post Entries page:
Takingrisks made himself a qualifier by winning the 2019 Scottish National and Saturday’s race will no doubt put him on course for another crack.
A right hullabaloo – regarding Saturday’s racing at Doncaster – on twitter, since an easily winning Shishkin of a Novice chase (albeit in ultra fast time) stole the plaudits and the headlines while the feature race, the Skybet Chase, realistically provided the entertainment and fairytale of a story as a couple of pups got turned over by a seasoned veteran…
When you consider Timeform’s commentary: “The fact that a 12-y-o was successful might suggest that this renewal of the Sky Bet was less competitive than usual, but that’s almost certainly not the right conclusion to draw, the next 3 that chased him home all better than ever this season and, in all probability, all doing as well as they could on the day; an honest pace from the outset coupled with testing conditions made for a proper test at the trip.”
Takingrisks, with that hairdo, most definitely…
Great thread created by winning trainer Nicky Richards who provided the pics: Trainer of the second, Aye Right, Harriet Graham, comments too. Surely, compensation awaits?
Probably just a dumping for future reference but some notes from last weekend’s racing. That little handicapper list is more complete but I got previews to be getting on with so this will have to do for now…
Well handicapped after revised ratings on speed figures & probably for the Notebook & or Trackers: Amour De Nuit (Ire) Beyond The Clouds Buzz (Fr) Canelo (Ire) Cap Du Nord (Fr) Champagne Court (Ire) Eldorado Allen (Fr) Elusive Belle (Ire) Eritage (Fr) Flash The Steel (Ire) Highest Sun (Fr) Hill Sixteen Huntsman Son (Ire) Kingswell Theatre Le Patriote (Fr) Lil Rockerfeller (USA) Mellow Ben (Ire) One For The Team Ramses De Teillee (Fr) Two For Gold (Ire) Yala Enki (Fr)
Ante-Post: Song For Someone: Champion Hurdle EW out to 30’s atm Kevin Blake might like to address the state of the hurdling division, I think it’s been seen to: surely, this fella and Saint Roi, to name but two, that could give last year’s champ something to think about? Lil’ Rockefeller: Stayers’ Hurdle EW – H’mm, not in betting so, while I thought last time behind Hill Sixteen, only a few lb shy of his 2017 33/1 Stayers’ Hurdle, 2nd, & makes h’cap list
Tommy Whittle day at Haydock & Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot
1.50 – Bennys King – +20 clear top cdg – Duly obliges with a dominant display :
2.05 Haydock – Our Power – A bit disappointing but Cheddleton in the C3 Novice Chase clocked a decent time and gave weight and a 6l’s hiding to as Sean Quinlan says: ‘Is a 160 horse,’ about the 2nd Cornerstone Lad. He earned a 155 from me & the rpr.
2.15 Newcastle – Another Theatre – rpr & claim –
2.25 – Thyme Hill – still improving – Roksana a weak cdg once the NR’s taken out – topspeed figure goes to Younevercall worth a small EW @ 29/s…. He finished 4th but what a finish and Paisley Park does it, late.. And really the slow time tells us that they couldn’t have gone quick enough early to blunt the winners finishing kick.
Ben Aitken, in his What We Learned From Weekend Post, says the favourite, Hill Sixteen, was let down by his breeding in that his sire, Court Cave (Ire), when it comes to 3 miles plus with ‘heavy, in the going, chances much diminished…
I been collecting these little angles for some time –
Amazing! 20/1 about back to back winner Not So Sleepy – 4th top on the figures but
John Ingles rounds up the major changes to the Timeform ratings from Ascot and Haydock:
Very much in agreement with this as the 2nd, Buzz, clocked ‘figure of the meet’ as a hurdler and while his trainer used his new young conditionals’ ‘Joe Anderson’ 10lb claim for another winner earlier in the week – will he get a chance to use to good effect on Buzz, I wonder?
“Runner-up Buzz (h150p) looks a must for the Betfair Hurdle shortlist after shaping well under a ride that asked a lot of him, while Lightly Squeeze (h137 from h134) ran well in third after a wind op, he too no doubt on course for the Betfair Hurdle, in which he fell when holding every chance last season.”
Good thread with vids:
Other Races –
Friday at Ascot – Nice chase debut from Allart [5th in Supreme] yes but storming time from the hurdlers in the Supreme Trial given 143 rpr & 136+ from Timeform, the winner, My Drogo 20/s Supreme Novices’ earnt a 153p from me allowing the 2nd & already a fast-time scorer, Llandinabo Lad a figure of the meet accolade of 155e.
Since becoming a level-weights contest in 2010, the National Hunt chase has been a happy hunting ground for relatively experienced novices.
Heading into this race, the last 10 winners had an average of 7.1 starts over fences. The exact breakdown of prior runs over fences is as follows: 11,9,5,3,4,10,4,10,10,5.
If you look at all runners in the past ten renewals, just 22 lined up with nine or more chase starts to their name. Of those, five have won and a further two placed while Atlanta Ablaze looked set to enhance that impressive record in last year’s renewal before falling at the 2nd last.
It’s no surprise that experience comes to the fore here given the questions this race poses to a novice and I doubt that the two-furlong reduction in distance will change that.
If lining up, few (if any) will have more experience than LORD DU MESNIL.
