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Day Four March 19th – Y’know what’s going to happen here? The@itv7 will go down at Lingfield – so best do the placepot as a saver. Oh well! All or nothing, as usual, I’ve either had a bad one, certainly a learning one, or…

I was due a bad one but we’ll be better prepared for next year for sure… GL 

PS: For those like me who’ve forgotten, handicaps is where we used to excel..

Leg1 – 1.20 – Quilixios – EW fun Adagio

Leg2 – 1:35 L-aw – Zwelela – 

Leg3 – 1.55 – Eclair De Beaufeu – EW Petit Mouchoir & Mengli Khan, more serious than ‘fun’ them!

Leg4 – 2.30 – Alaphilippe EW

Leg5 – 3.05 – Frodon EW has to be to produce a lsp on the day?

Leg6 – 3.40 – Stalker Wallace – 

Leg7 – 4.15 – Shattered Love – 

Other Races:- Other races: 4.50 Eglantine Du Seuil EW – If desperate Leoncavallo & Adjali EW fun – GL

& CDG’s

FRIDAY 19th MARCH

TRIUMPH HURDLE

1.20: Just using days since last ran & rpr’s – I got this down to Quilixios really with a nb Adagio…. If Goshen had stood up last year favourites would be safely in the black. Tritonic may swing the balance back but recent trends suggest a ‘fresh 28+ days from Leopardstown is more likely… Ah! While I is usually at loggerheads with the Racing Posts TopSpeed – the case is even more so when it comes to Irish racing, there does seem a bit of discrepancy between the UK & Ireland, so much so that basically, in Ireland you’re lucky to even get a speed figure so like as below if you should ever see an emboldened topspeed for an Irish runner as Quilixios here. It can often prove significant…. & then, looking at the race record of Henry de Bromhead [0-1-1 100% placed] compared to W Mullins [1-5-22 2/6 37% placed] – augurs well for Quilixios too….

COUNTY HURDLE

1.55: – Fascinating contest – what with Petit Mouchoir carrying top weight with young Jordan Gainford taking off 7lb, oh & there’s a system, topweight / topspeed? 26’s – Tops the TS #cdg but then there’s Mengli Khan up there too & oh my Eclair De Beaufeu, rpr #cdg interesting battle of the figs & he’s only 8’s & I can’t believe we have a 6lb clear top-rated rpr in Darasso, trainer saying he needs & his cdg’s suggest as much ‘soft ? 40/s

[Just had a look at the #cdg’s & Darasso, who is amongst the players is a 4lb clear top rpr – is 20/s & will do for norway this stage: March 8th] 11 days l8r & he’s 40/s ? 

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

2.30: Did like Stattler but turns out a bit one paced at the finish whereas, if Paddy’s right about the ground: I like Spotlight’s comment about Alaphilippe “but assured stamina and a will to win are big selling points.” seems a tad inherent in most of the Class Of Sadler’s Wells –

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

3.05.: Favourite and dual winner Al Boum Photo solid but my notes remind me of 2010 winner, Imperial Commander with A Plus Tard 10/s EW end of January…. In the end there’s no alternative but to go EW Santini, been a price crash on APT & a visor added, might just do it..
Nah! Looking at the topspeed #cdg, I gotta go Frodon, horses for courses n all that… 

FOXHUNTER CHASE

3.40: I’m going to plump for Stalker Wallace, now that he’s a 10yo a fair EW price & within range on the figures, just!

MRS PADDY POWER MARES’ CHASE

4.15: – when in doubt – the only CD & perhaps with a jockey doing alright tavm & massive #cdg of course – Shattered Love, easy…

MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE

4.50: Nope: the Irish again & fine performance here by Galopin Des Champs on his h’cap debut debut after a 6th behind Appreciate It last time: Video here

“Hopefully by now the Irish will have taken all the big money and leave us some scraps in this lowly C2 – – Another fascinating contest – I could sit here all day n reminisce, if i hadn’t got myself on a stopwatch with deadlines to meet… 
So a fancy for the Coral Cup, Eglantine Du Seuil turns up here & as #cdg topspeed 5lb clear and while trainer Paul Nicholls is saying she got a lot of weight – they seem to do OK here, he has a 2-3-19 fair record in race & 7yo’s do OK too. J P O’Brien 1-1-4 in the race but neither of his 2 have any course experience unlike lesser race usuals in Pipe Leoncavallo 25/s & Henderson’s Adjali 33/s

Last Year:

Friday 13th – Just the Gold Cup & massive Nap landed!

Last Year:

Friday 13th – Just the Gold Cup & massive Nap landed!


1.30 Triumph – The video: A non-event in terms of time, if he’d have stood up he would not have achieved a bigger figure than he already had – Big Solo fan? Will trainer leave Sir Psycho in to ensure a true test? Yes! Hard to argue with RP’s Spotlight verdict, think the race will be set up for a differently ridden Goshen & under-rated Solo lol

Image
Gold Cup, probs more than hopeful, A Plus Tard

My workings page for Day4

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The switch to the New Course, more galloping in nature – hence a stiffer test.’

Decided to add the Class Of Sadler’s runners for today too…

& CDG’s

  THURSDAY 18th MARCHMARSH NOVICES’ CHASE1.20: ffMAX! Unbeaten, Envoi Allen – a lot of people’s idea of a banker but no speed figure, grrr… He’s 2lb clear on rpr’s ahead of that girt massive 13lb clear top speed figure Chatham Street Lad, who like the favourite entered for literally everything. Fusil Raffles not out of it either but been off for longer than the last 10 winners at least?     

PERTEMPS FINAL 1.55: You have to go back 10 years since anyone below 138OR has won so maybe the RP(Nap) Storm Goddess a safer option than Come On Teddy who still clocked a personal best while beaten favourite & race not run to suit last time? Storm Arising and a David Pipe 6yo, Brinkley, are other interesting hopefuls.  

RYANAIR CHASE 2.30 Feb 26th Alloha ticks most boxes so far… 6 & 7yo’s best record as too, 1st3 in betting, Fakir marginally better than Mister Fisher on #cdg’s but the latter has far more 1’s than 2’s to his name & he’s ahead of Allaho on cdg stats too but he’s not French bred, are we in line for a correction? Probs safer to dutch a unit stake between the three? As a fun aside, Venetia’s race record of 0-2-3 & his running in the Peterborough suggest a little EW


STAYERS’ HURDLE 3.05: Lil Rockefeller, early stages, ran right to previous best early season & surely #cdg ish! 33/s – A lot more fun than when old Big Bucks used to win it every year for sure but that’s a bit of a standout last time speed figure from last year’s shock winner Lisnagar Oscar. Rebecca Curtis has a decent looking 1-1-4 record in the race. I also like the odds about Lil Rockerfella, the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited last time but run before at Newbury suggested right back to 2017 33/1 2nd best [& which figs puts him amongst best in field] so 67/s worth a small EW    




FESTIVAL PLATE3.40: Champagne Court 29’s £ 8yo b below OR140 EW chance says trainer & jockey a winner yesterday. Ideal conditions & topspeed, possibly best of these?  
Mister Whitaker 15/s 9yo 150OR, interesting back here says SpotlightTop Notch 26/s WO* H* 10yo ridden by 7lb Claimer 154OR?Happy Diva – £ 17/s fr 27/s ‘11 3 145OR b 10yo,Ideal conditions & trnr4R

DAWN RUN NOVICES’ HURDLE 4.15:  – The Willie Mullins benefit race – won the last 5 runnings while A King 0-2-4 ?
There’s two of the Sadler’s crew in this race and of his runners W Mullins says: “The drying ground will benefit Hook Up more than any of our horses this week.” ‘This week’ he says! But Paul Townend stays with Gauloise better stats than Danny Mullins 1/39? Meanwhile, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Martello Sky yet and is probably very capable of outrunning her position in the market & Bryony Frosty best jockey stats in the table.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR 4.50: Could be wrong but more likely a 7 or 8 yo & Venetia Williams’ Didero Vallis, only one of to have run a personal best last time, could be a worth an EW 

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Day Two March 17th – Probs just play Coral & Grand Annual today… 

Leg1 – 1.20 – Bravemansgame – 

Leg2 – 1.45 Hunt – 

Leg3 – 1.55 – Monkfish, sacrificing a small EW acca for a crack at the impossible 200k. Fool!

Leg4 – 2.30 – Janika EW? EW fun Our Power & Boreham Bill [Go on Ben lad, GL]

Leg5 – 3.05 – Rouge Vif EW – First Flow EW fun

Leg6 – 3.40 – Le Breuil EW fun

Leg7 – 4.15 – Duc Des Genievres EW

Other Races:- 4.50 Cool Jet EW fun… 

What a day ‘twas, a day for old rogues, rule breakers out en masse, the oldest Supreme for donkeys, I knew it really ‘13 years,’ lucky for some & so it proved for Appreciate It & wiley old veteran, Vintage Clouds & 80/1 winners, no chance! Yup! It all went on yesterday.. 

Situation after Day One – w-p-r – Mentioned 13 – 1-2-13 – 28/1 Vintage Clouds – 33/1 Eldorado Allen & Elham Valley 66/s placed. I was up on the day…

& CDG’s

WEDNESDAY 17th MARCH BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Hard to oppose Bob Olinger so up there on the figs in the Supreme but h’mm, Hard to believe Paul Nicholls has had only one runner in the race before: & while the Irish two look solid enough, points make prizes and there’s a fair chance Bravemansgame may not be so overbet?

RSA CHASE 1.55: I thought he was a best fit on stats & trends before Leopardstown February, Irish banker, for me at least, Monkfish, already being described as a future Gold Cup horse. Monkfish was best fit on trends & stats before he clocked a whopper last time – do I feel l brave enough to for the 2nd? Somewhere between Henderson’s race record with supporting figures & just about next best on the figures, The Big Breakaway, h’mm?
CORAL CUP 2.30: Gotta do Janika here: looking a very similar scenario to William Henry, who did us so well in 2019 and his trainer, Nicky Henderson having won the last two runnings, looks to hold a strong hand again… Jonjo O’Neill marginally best trainer for race 0-3-6 but NTD 0-2-5 not far behind & Our Power better #cdg & odds & then this race as likely to fall to someone without history so no hesitation in nominating Boreham Bill, not far behind leaders #cdg wise, has Ideal Conditions & ran a personal best last time. 

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 3.05: Cracking race, possibly the most [0.20 clear of card] fast time qualifiers I’ve seen in one heat at any one time: Think it’s time for the old guard to step aside and make way for a new kid on the block tempted to go First Flow but at least we know Rouge Vif handles the track and possibly the ground over Put The Kettle On and twice the price..

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3.40: 

GRAND ANNUAL CHASE 4.15: Like Embittered so far, March 9th – Amongst final #cdg 1st4 : but a clear top #cdg & previous Arkle winner for me, Duc Des Genievres, a fair EW price
.

CHAMPION BUMPER 4.50: I’m not looking any further than a W Mullins 2nd or 3rd string that was made the Racing Post Star Performer last time out suggesting that he wouldn’t be out of it & given trainer’s record in the race and mine, in that it seems one of the hardest to call the winner: just a fun EW about Cool Jet 33/s should suffice. Kilcruit’s mighty rpr, Three Stripe Life’s topspeed & Elle Est Belle a ‘ffMAX, all respected..  

Last Year: 

Wednesday

Shishkin

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