Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Somewhere between between twitter, facebook, reduced fields, I mean, smallest Supreme field since? The covid, the government, oh no! On with the show.. Usually, unless I hit the winner of the Coral Cup, the first two days can be pretty meagre for me, so I not going overboard with much betting…

Day One March 16th – The @itv7 with some fun bet suggestions, might do decent price EW Yankee:

Leg1 – 1.20 – Metier – EW fun Grumpy Charley – 

Leg2 – 1.55 – Shishkin / EW fun Eldorado Allen – 

Leg3 – 2.30 – Pym – EW yankee fun Vintage Clouds – 

Leg4 – 2.55 Sedge – Follow Your Fire

Leg5 – 3.05 – Epatante – EW fun James Du Berlais

Leg6 – 3.40 – Indefatigable EW & fun yankee

Leg7 – 4.15 – Nassalam EW & EW yankee fun Elham Valley

Other Races:- 4.50 Nestor Park EW yankee fun

& CDG’s

TUESDAY 16th MARCHSUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Metier, I think bc
Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:
Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:& the case against Appreciate It: 
OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win

ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY 1:55: Can’t really see beyond Shishkin: Who knows? If it is ‘soft tmoz, my 40/1 Eldorado Allen is 0/5 but is a close 3rd on the #cdg’s?

Down to 6 runners and I can’t help thinking Eldorado Allen at 40/s is too big? It’s possible the race came too soon when beaten by Allmankind – being his 3rd race in quick succession last fall. It was hard to put a ceiling on Shishkin’s last run and I think Eldorado Allen is well handicapped so the fact he’s come here could mean business? Just get the feeling if it’s as plain sailing that Allmankind sets it up for Shishkin, he might just not be the only one overtaking at the finish..

FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE 2.30: Happygolucky, solid – I did like The Wolf till seen sire stats & now prefer Pym & Vintage Clouds EW

CHAMPION HURDLE 3.05: Haves wung back to Epatante, JP pulled his other 2 entries out & she was a good winner last year. This race could well be a case of ‘always bet on potential except in the best of races’ and last years’ running remains the best form on show. Willie Mullins thinks James Du Berlais, on his French form & rating is 1st 4 material, could be an interesting EW fun bet at 29/s if anyone offering extra places?

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE 3.40: Nothing wrong with Indefatigable again I think: 

BOODLES JUVENILE HURDLE 4.15: Nassalam dg figs 20/s like bar weight & makes me think Elham Valley may do better against him in a h’cap only 4lb between them so odds silly? EW shot 50/s – hardest race I looked at – this a majority race for a quick return to the track – would like to see Homme Public run well. 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE 4.50: Trainer, Ben Pauling, has won the race before and quite bullish about the chances of Nestor Park EW fun

Last year: & the evicted: NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE 
Tuesday

Metier

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE with previous years:

1.20: – 80% fav will lose – 75% W Mullins horses not to place & no 7yo since 2008, Captain Cee Bee, 13 years lucky for some but

Metier, I think bc

Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:

Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:

2020 Shishkin by Sholokov (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) close 2nd, Abacadabras by Davidoff (Ger) by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells – 

2019 Klassical Dream (Fr) by Dream Well (Fr) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

2018 Summerville Boy (Ire) by Sandmason & a bit different?

2017 Labaik (Fr) by Montmarte (Fr) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2016 Altior (Ire) by High Chaparral (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2015 Douvan (Fr) by Walk In The Park (Ire) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

So 5 of the last 6 winner’s sires have traced back to Sadler’s Wells (USA) – Ballyadam, [Bob Olinger 150OR & Soaring Glory are all similar in that respect whereas Metier – all better TopSpeed than Appreciate It too], his dam is by Authorized, by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells (USA). 

Jeremy’s, Mister Fister Fisher 14/1, 2019 145OR, only one I can find…

Then there’s the Dosage Index, not an exact science but again, looking at the previous winners: 

OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win& then there’s the Dosage Index & probably the reason he didn’t win last year too. Bearing in mind he has a DI of 3 just look at the DI column here, biggest in 12 is 2. Form anywhere else us pretty much insignificant. The hill after a fast pace 2 miles+ is the crunch & his breeding & his run last year, pretty much prove it. So, 6/4, value is it? I’m preparing an old pair of shoes to eat just in case..GL

And ‘erm: Appreciate It & Mister Fisher are very similar: 

And no winners with a Dosage Index of ‘3’ and hardly any with so few points. My guess is that it’s going to take one hell of a ride….?

Trends: 

Won last time – 9/10 won last x 1 6th – 

From: 3/10 Leop rest various – 

Trainer 4 Race:

No. of Days: 

Odds – Mostly between 5 & 12/s last year Shishkin was 5/2f fc won at 6/s

Age: You have to go back to 2008 to Captain Cee Bee for someone older than 6 winning so another serious negative for Appreciate It?

Wght/OR:

TopSpeed Adjusted / rpr Adjusted

Breds: French 5 Irish 5 GB 1

Inbreds: 7 of 11 Yes! 

Dosage:  Just about anything unlike Appreciate It:

Oh & just one more thing: I’ve started a new spreadsheet for those little sire/course observations: I’ve highlighted – a kind of WARNING! ‘Possible Lay material’ Reddish, those with more than 20 runners with less than 10% SR. Probably be shouting for Metier & Grumpy Charley EW, go on lad. Just another 50 odd plus courses to do… GL

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The Cheltenham HOT Pots

Posted: February 17, 2021 in Uncategorized

8 favs currently sub 2-1 for the Festival- how many of them win, and how would you rank them all in order of how close they are to “banker material?” Says Lewis

HORSERACEODDSFAV%
SHISKINARKLE2.0660%
CONCERTISTAMARES2.0650%
CHACON POUR SOIQUEEN MOTHER CC2.2640%
ENVOI ALLENMARSH NOVICE1.8540%
MONKFISHRSA/FESTIVAL1.9240%
APPRECIATE ITSUPREME3.2520%
EASYLANDCROSS COUNTRY CHASE3.1520%
KILCRUITCHAMPION BUMPER2.7420%

There was one little method that pin-pointed the Skybet Chase winner, Takingrisks, that of the old Nick Mordin, National 1st4 System, latest qualifiers (highlighted pink) and Aintree Entries here and updated as they go #CDG’s (Course, Distance & Going figures here. Main Racing Post Entries page:

Takingrisks made himself a qualifier by winning the 2019 Scottish National and Saturday’s race will no doubt put him on course for another crack.

A right hullabaloo – regarding Saturday’s racing at Doncaster – on twitter, since an easily winning Shishkin of a Novice chase (albeit in ultra fast time) stole the plaudits and the headlines while the feature race, the Skybet Chase, realistically provided the entertainment and fairytale of a story as a couple of pups got turned over by a seasoned veteran… 

When you consider Timeform’s commentary: “The fact that a 12-y-o was successful might suggest that this renewal of the Sky Bet was less competitive than usual, but that’s almost certainly not the right conclusion to draw, the next 3 that chased him home all better than ever this season and, in all probability, all doing as well as they could on the day; an honest pace from the outset coupled with testing conditions made for a proper test at the trip.”

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Takingrisks, with that hairdo, most definitely…

Great thread created by winning trainer Nicky Richards who provided the pics: Trainer of the second, Aye Right, Harriet Graham, comments too. Surely, compensation awaits?  

“WINNER, Takingrisks has done us proud again winning the @SkyBet chase @DoncasterRaces for @SquinlanSean and owner Frank Bird here he is back in his stable after the victory with @LyallHodgins who looks after him
“We can’t stop watching the replay of Takingrisks and @squinlansean winning this year’s @SkyBet Chase for @NGRichardsRace

20/21 NH Early Season Round Up

Posted: December 25, 2020 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

Probably just a dumping for future reference but some notes from last weekend’s racing. That little handicapper list is more complete but I got previews to be getting on with so this will have to do for now…

Well handicapped after revised ratings on speed figures & probably for the Notebook & or Trackers:                                             
Amour De Nuit (Ire)
Beyond The Clouds
Buzz (Fr)
Canelo (Ire)
Cap Du Nord (Fr)
Champagne Court (Ire)
Eldorado Allen (Fr)
Elusive Belle (Ire)
Eritage (Fr)
Flash The Steel (Ire)
Highest Sun (Fr)
Hill Sixteen
Huntsman Son (Ire)
Kingswell Theatre
Le Patriote (Fr)
Lil Rockerfeller (USA)
Mellow Ben (Ire)
One For The Team
Ramses De Teillee (Fr)
Two For Gold (Ire)
Yala Enki (Fr)
Ante-Post:
Song For Someone: Champion Hurdle EW out to 30’s atm
Kevin Blake might like to address the state of the hurdling division, I think it’s been seen to: surely, this fella and Saint Roi, to name but two, that could give last year’s champ something to think about?
Lil’ Rockefeller: Stayers’ Hurdle EW – H’mm, not in betting so, while I thought last time behind Hill Sixteen, only a few lb shy of his 2017 33/1 Stayers’ Hurdle, 2nd, & makes h’cap list 

Tommy Whittle day at Haydock & Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot

 the preview: Here:

1.50 – Bennys King – +20 clear top cdg – Duly obliges with a dominant display :

2.05 Haydock – Our Power – A bit disappointing but Cheddleton in the C3 Novice Chase clocked a decent time and gave weight and a 6l’s hiding to as Sean Quinlan says: ‘Is a 160 horse,’ about the 2nd Cornerstone Lad. He earned a 155 from me & the rpr. 

2.15 Newcastle – Another Theatre – rpr & claim – 

2.25 – Thyme Hill – still improving – Roksana a weak cdg once the NR’s taken out – topspeed figure goes to Younevercall worth a small EW @ 29/s…. He finished 4th but what a finish and Paisley Park does it, late.. And really the slow time tells us that they couldn’t have gone quick enough early to blunt the winners finishing kick. 

Not a happy Dickie

2.40 Haydock Tommy Whittle H’cap Chase – Lord Napier – cdg figs* – Disappointing & was the slowest chase on card.

The winner’s trainer, Brain Ellison, featured:

In Timeform’s WHICH TRAINERS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BEST JUMPERS?

Sam’s Adventure after the race:

Ben Aitken, in his What We Learned From Weekend Post, says the favourite, Hill Sixteen, was let down by his breeding in that his sire, Court Cave (Ire), when it comes to 3 miles plus with ‘heavy, in the going, chances much diminished… 

I been collecting these little angles for some time – 

3.00 – Flying Angel & Quarenta – 

3.35 – Malaya – cdg figs & H*, – & Oakley 22/s pos EW

Amazing! 20/1 about back to back winner Not So Sleepy – 4th top on the figures but 

John Ingles rounds up the major changes to the Timeform ratings from Ascot and Haydock: 

Very much in agreement with this as the 2nd, Buzz, clocked ‘figure of the meet’ as a hurdler and while his trainer used his new young conditionals’ ‘Joe Anderson’ 10lb claim for another winner earlier in the week – will he get a chance to use to good effect on Buzz, I wonder?

“Runner-up Buzz (h150p) looks a must for the Betfair Hurdle shortlist after shaping well under a ride that asked a lot of him, while Lightly Squeeze (h137 from h134) ran well in third after a wind op, he too no doubt on course for the Betfair Hurdle, in which he fell when holding every chance last season.”

Good thread with vids:

Other Races – 

Friday at Ascot – Nice chase debut from Allart [5th in Supreme] yes but storming time from the hurdlers in the Supreme Trial given 143 rpr & 136+ from Timeform, the winner, My Drogo 20/s Supreme Novices’ earnt a 153p from me allowing the 2nd & already a fast-time scorer, Llandinabo Lad a figure of the meet accolade of 155e.  

Saturday December 19th 2020- 

1.50 – Bennys King – +20 clear top cdg – 

2.05 H – Our Power – 

2.15 N – Another Theatre – rpr & claim – 

2.25 – Thyme Hill – still improving 

2.40 H – Lord Napier – cdg figs* – 

3.00 – Flying Angel & Quarenta – 

3.35 – Malaya – cdg figs & H*, – & Oakley 22/s pos EW

Other Races – 

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Lord Du Mesnil, ridden by Alain Cawley

Since becoming a level-weights contest in 2010, the National Hunt chase has been a happy hunting ground for relatively experienced novices.

Heading into this race, the last 10 winners had an average of 7.1 starts over fences. The exact breakdown of prior runs over fences is as follows: 11,9,5,3,4,10,4,10,10,5.

If you look at all runners in the past ten renewals, just 22 lined up with nine or more chase starts to their name. Of those, five have won and a further two placed while Atlanta Ablaze looked set to enhance that impressive record in last year’s renewal before falling at the 2nd last.

It’s no surprise that experience comes to the fore here given the questions this race poses to a novice and I doubt that the two-furlong reduction in distance will change that.

If lining up, few (if any) will have more experience than LORD DU MESNIL.

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Reviewing SANDOWN

12.40 C3 Nov Hurdle 16hy – 

Won by 4yo Palladium – got a 144p from me has an OR 124 atm – check back Tues but I not the only one who immediately thought ‘Fred Winter.’

From the rpa: “PALLADIUM was always close up and gradually stamped his authority on proceedings from the second-last. Narrowly beaten on his hurdles debut at Warwick in December, he’d won a weak race well over this C&D last month and appeared to take another step forward on this occasion. He was keener than ideal early on, but he was a fair maiden on the Flat at up to 1m6f and his stamina really came to the fore in the straight. He’s being aimed at the Fred Winter at the festival next month and will appreciate the likely strong gallop.. [Marcus Buckland]

QUOTES: I had to come and run to get PALLADIUM up a bit for the Fred Winter [Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle] and that should do it. Once he gets to the front he’s a very good jumper and to gallop through that ground like he did was a good performance.
– Nicky Henderson, trainer
1.15 C2 (0- c – 
Winner Dolos (Fr) earned XoM & 171p – will be back here rather than Cheltenham:

second successive win in the race by Dolos. Only three of the six finished. Dolos, who’d finished second in this in 2018 prior to winning it last year off an 8lb lower mark, travelled best and did just enough on the run-in to repel the late rally of the runner-up. Back into a handicap after being outclassed in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek over C&D in December, he appeared to be idling after the last and may well have found extra had the second got upsides. This was another PB from him and connections will now consider giving him a break and bringing him back for a crack in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase in the season finale in April. [Marcus Buckland]]

QUOTES: Dolos is a hard horse to place because he’s just shy of Grade 1 level but he loves it around here and that was a fair performance. There’s nothing obvious to run him in next and we might leave him for the Celebration Chase back here at the end of season. He’s good fresh and is a lovely horse.
– Paul Nicholls, trainer
1.50 Listed Contenders Hurdle – Big, chasing type, Quel Destin wins but has no pretentions of being Champion – Clocked ‘Time of the Meet as hurdler but:

QUOTES: I just thought that although QUEL DESTIN would enjoy the ground, he might come on a bit for this run. That will put him right and Fontwell for the National Spirit [on February 23] looks his race. He’s going to be an awesome chaser next season. – Paul Nicholls, trainer
2.25 Scilly Isles Novice Chase Gr1 20s – probably most significant race of meet regarding the Cheltenham Festival. Not far of Time of the Meet: Winner earned 167p Watch video

From rpa: “This Grade 1 Novices’ Chase has a rich history and was won last year by subsequent Cheltenham Festival, Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase winner, Defi Du Seuil. This was a fascinating renewal, though with star hurdler Laurina again disappointing, it was left to Itchy Feet to land a first Grade 1 success for Olly Murphy.

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Happy connections

Itchy Feet, having just his second start over fences having won by a wide margin at Leicester over Christmas, saw this out strongly and strode clear from the last to give Olly Murphy his first win at the highest level. A high-class novice hurdler (he beat Grand Sancy in Listed company at Kempton in October 2018), he’d run his best race when third to Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. He’d been below that level in two subsequent hurdle outings, but has been revitalised by a switch to chasing and must now be considered a leading contender for the Grade 1 Marsh Novices’ Chase at the festival (formerly the JLT), a double completed last season by Defi Du Seuil. He’s a general 10-1 chance for that contest and is 14s for the Arkle.

Midnight Shadow, arguably a fortunate winner of the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last time, had no answers to Itchy Feet from the last, though kept on admirably to put 15l between himself and the third. Last season’s Relkeel Hurdle winner didn’t have the speed for 2m over fences earlier this season and has really thrived since being stepped up in trip.Champagne Platinum looked up against on all known form but he made good progress towards the leaders approaching two out and outran his inflated odds. He emptied on the run-in, suggesting a return to shorter may pay dividends. He would like nicely treated in handicaps off his current mark. [Marcus Buckland]QUOTES: I’ve always had faith in this lad and he got a masterclass of a ride from Gavin Sheehan. It was only Itchy Feet‘s second run over fences but he’s got a big engine and this has been a well-executed plan. We’ll let the dust settle but I’d imagine all being well we’ll go for the Marsh. – Olly Murphy, trainer
3.00 Gr3 3m hy (0- Hurdle
4th Agrapart – Bit of an Eye-Catcher earning Figure of the Meet & not far below his PB under a 5lb Claim – still life in this 9yo…

& ffs! He’s only a Sadler’s Wells inbred:

3.35 C2 c (0- 24s – Better note the winner because aside from the above, his revised mark might just put him at the foot of the weights in a Festival Handicap:

Rpr “DEISE ABA swept clear from the last to win convincingly. An all-the-way winner over 3m1f in novice company at Catterick last time, he was ridden far more patiently on this occasion and crept steadily into it on the final circuit. He didn’t fence particularly well but he had the runner-up firmly in his sights from three out and recovered quickly from an untimely mistake at the second-last. This was an impressive start for him in handicaps and he’s clearly some way ahead of his mark.” As above Marcus Buckland, ty

Navan Calling

Posted: December 17, 2019 in Uncategorized

How dare someone interrupt the 40th birthday celebrations of The Clash’s London Calling with a quality racecard….

11.30 – 12.00 I not the only one taken with the winner of the opening Maiden Hurdle as Graeme North says:

“Pace maps from Fairyhouse/Navan this weekend. Easily the best faster-than-expected finish was posted by @HenrydeBromhead‘s Captain Guinness. Finish in Latest Exhibition/Andy Dufresne race was slower than it should have been so hard to view form too highly”

And I like cartography but what the rest of it means? Interestingly, an opposing view form Timeform regarding Latest Exhibition, as they gave out a Time Figure of 144 – these ‘Tfigs’ can prove quite reliable and I’m quite intrigued as to what they gave Captain Guinness as he evidently stole a march on the remaining hurdles races according to the Racing Post standards. What a terrific racecourse debut! He obviously likes a good pace to run at and absolutely loves it when said pacesetter falls at the last. You have to feel a little for Willie Mullins’ (& those poor punters who backed) 2/9f favourite, Blackbow, who would probably have won?

2.35 Time of the meet regards the chasers, Mick The Jiver, takes the honours – marginally, as it could have been closer has Kevin Brouder had a bigger claim and for me, the 2nd, Wonderoftheworld, being two years younger than the winner who had been here before and won, was making his Navan debut and will know more next time?

3.10 That ‘Future Champions,’ Listed Bumper… Crikey!

Only 7 runners and I could nearly write a book (& I’m wondering if Pogue won today) a song and a dance…

& he doesn’t even mention the last home, Buck Rogers, who is a half brother to Champion Bumper winner, Fayonagh – last today but one for the Notebook to be making his debut in a such a race as this, ie. Listed Class

Newbury In November 2019

Posted: December 4, 2019 in Uncategorized

This meeting imho is so important during the National Hunt Season as it is quite often where and when the new stars are unleashed. I’ve put a spreadsheet together with the latest – now 11 year’s worth of previous – winners. 

I often put ‘Nby/Nov’ in my individual horse notes, it literally carries as much clout as having run at Royal Ascot does to the flat enthusiast. And, what with Champagne On Ice and Oldgrangewood this season, like Smad Place and Denman, it’s very much a Horses for Courses venue. 

I do love the ratings game and after every big meet I’m usually scratching my head or pulling my hair out but I’ve decided to grow some balls and just go with it, even then, The Cashel Man, has still got me wondering?

Four from Newbury, four races stand out for me from this year’s Winter Carnival:

[Emboldened Blue is best for now:]

I’ve had my rant over Fanion D’estruval(Fr) [& if you should want to learn a trick with French rpr’s by all means – read] and I’m not the only one suggesting the 2nd [Sully D’Oc AA] at least, won’t be so over-hyped next time. And while everyone seems unhappy by a 6lb weight rise for Kalshnikov to an Official Rating of 161, Venetia’s winner, while running 8lb faster – has only been raised 12 to 149. 
Having said that, he’s not the biggest and whether he can give weight away, this ‘11 1, is the most he’s carried in 6 career starts, is open to question. The BHA actually dropped the 3rd horse, Southfield Stone a couple of pounds and it’ll be interesting to see if any of the beaten horses from this year’s Fulke Walwyn can win some handicaps. I think they will…..

And then there’s Son Of Camas, I was hesitant at first – before I realised I had given Buveur D’air(Fr) in 2015 an estimated 160e for winning the same race – so running 13lb better than Champers on Ice puts him in the same ballpark. There were less gaps this year between the beaten horses until the 5th placed – who was 12l’s adrift of the first four – they could be worth keeping an eye on too….

An illustrious roll of honour this race: 2018 Bright Forecast(Ire) ts108 149OR Now, Lostintranslation(Ire) ts123 173OR Now & 2015 Buveur D’air(Fr) ts121 17ish Now – Three of the last 5 winners and whose original figures have been upped by the RP since and realistically, any one of these first four could prove best in the long-term?

The Big One: The ‘now what?’ Ladbroke Trophy to me always will be The Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup!
Got a nifty simple system that’s having a good season: Top rpr with a Claimer on board, well done Ben!
I made a point of suggesting that back in the day the Mackeson 1st5 used to Pay-to-Follow and while the 5th home, Magic Saint(Fr),  just boosted the form by winning later on this card – I wasn’t so impressed this year as I am with this race. I can see some big race winners coming from this one.
Actually, (God, it’s hard being a genius lol), while we have a Welsh National winner, Elegant Escape(Ire), in 3rd [some profile, not fallen, pulled up or unseated in 21 runs]
and a ‘running on again, Scottish National winner, Joe Farrell(Ire) 18l’s 7th – I may as well add this race to the National 1st4 System spreadsheet! But Personal Best’s ran by 1st6 & even the 7th Joe has only had 21 starts….?


& ah! If they think Epatante [links to all race replays?]  can develop into a real Champion Hurdle candidate – then why not The Cashel Man? He did run 21lb faster and either way we are left with some wriggle room for some of the main protagonists. 
Howling Milan’s owner or trainer obviously likes Newbury as he’s only ran six times under rules and four of them here at the Berkshire track winning a 16 runner Novice (Jan19) by 26l’s on the only occasion so far that he’s ran on ground officially described as ‘gd.