Posts Tagged ‘#CheltenhamFestival’

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Day Two March 17th – Probs just play Coral & Grand Annual today… 

Leg1 – 1.20 – Bravemansgame – 

Leg2 – 1.45 Hunt – 

Leg3 – 1.55 – Monkfish, sacrificing a small EW acca for a crack at the impossible 200k. Fool!

Leg4 – 2.30 – Janika EW? EW fun Our Power & Boreham Bill [Go on Ben lad, GL]

Leg5 – 3.05 – Rouge Vif EW – First Flow EW fun

Leg6 – 3.40 – Le Breuil EW fun

Leg7 – 4.15 – Duc Des Genievres EW

Other Races:- 4.50 Cool Jet EW fun… 

What a day ‘twas, a day for old rogues, rule breakers out en masse, the oldest Supreme for donkeys, I knew it really ‘13 years,’ lucky for some & so it proved for Appreciate It & wiley old veteran, Vintage Clouds & 80/1 winners, no chance! Yup! It all went on yesterday.. 

Situation after Day One – w-p-r – Mentioned 13 – 1-2-13 – 28/1 Vintage Clouds – 33/1 Eldorado Allen & Elham Valley 66/s placed. I was up on the day…

& CDG’s

WEDNESDAY 17th MARCH BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Hard to oppose Bob Olinger so up there on the figs in the Supreme but h’mm, Hard to believe Paul Nicholls has had only one runner in the race before: & while the Irish two look solid enough, points make prizes and there’s a fair chance Bravemansgame may not be so overbet?

RSA CHASE 1.55: I thought he was a best fit on stats & trends before Leopardstown February, Irish banker, for me at least, Monkfish, already being described as a future Gold Cup horse. Monkfish was best fit on trends & stats before he clocked a whopper last time – do I feel l brave enough to for the 2nd? Somewhere between Henderson’s race record with supporting figures & just about next best on the figures, The Big Breakaway, h’mm?
CORAL CUP 2.30: Gotta do Janika here: looking a very similar scenario to William Henry, who did us so well in 2019 and his trainer, Nicky Henderson having won the last two runnings, looks to hold a strong hand again… Jonjo O’Neill marginally best trainer for race 0-3-6 but NTD 0-2-5 not far behind & Our Power better #cdg & odds & then this race as likely to fall to someone without history so no hesitation in nominating Boreham Bill, not far behind leaders #cdg wise, has Ideal Conditions & ran a personal best last time. 

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 3.05: Cracking race, possibly the most [0.20 clear of card] fast time qualifiers I’ve seen in one heat at any one time: Think it’s time for the old guard to step aside and make way for a new kid on the block tempted to go First Flow but at least we know Rouge Vif handles the track and possibly the ground over Put The Kettle On and twice the price..

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 3.40: 

GRAND ANNUAL CHASE 4.15: Like Embittered so far, March 9th – Amongst final #cdg 1st4 : but a clear top #cdg & previous Arkle winner for me, Duc Des Genievres, a fair EW price
.

CHAMPION BUMPER 4.50: I’m not looking any further than a W Mullins 2nd or 3rd string that was made the Racing Post Star Performer last time out suggesting that he wouldn’t be out of it & given trainer’s record in the race and mine, in that it seems one of the hardest to call the winner: just a fun EW about Cool Jet 33/s should suffice. Kilcruit’s mighty rpr, Three Stripe Life’s topspeed & Elle Est Belle a ‘ffMAX, all respected..  

Last Year: 

Wednesday

Shishkin

Somewhere between between twitter, facebook, reduced fields, I mean, smallest Supreme field since? The covid, the government, oh no! On with the show.. Usually, unless I hit the winner of the Coral Cup, the first two days can be pretty meagre for me, so I not going overboard with much betting…

Day One March 16th – The @itv7 with some fun bet suggestions, might do decent price EW Yankee:

Leg1 – 1.20 – Metier – EW fun Grumpy Charley – 

Leg2 – 1.55 – Shishkin / EW fun Eldorado Allen – 

Leg3 – 2.30 – Pym – EW yankee fun Vintage Clouds – 

Leg4 – 2.55 Sedge – Follow Your Fire

Leg5 – 3.05 – Epatante – EW fun James Du Berlais

Leg6 – 3.40 – Indefatigable EW & fun yankee

Leg7 – 4.15 – Nassalam EW & EW yankee fun Elham Valley

Other Races:- 4.50 Nestor Park EW yankee fun

& CDG’s

TUESDAY 16th MARCHSUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE 1.20: Metier, I think bc
Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:
Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:& the case against Appreciate It: 
OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win

ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY 1:55: Can’t really see beyond Shishkin: Who knows? If it is ‘soft tmoz, my 40/1 Eldorado Allen is 0/5 but is a close 3rd on the #cdg’s?

Down to 6 runners and I can’t help thinking Eldorado Allen at 40/s is too big? It’s possible the race came too soon when beaten by Allmankind – being his 3rd race in quick succession last fall. It was hard to put a ceiling on Shishkin’s last run and I think Eldorado Allen is well handicapped so the fact he’s come here could mean business? Just get the feeling if it’s as plain sailing that Allmankind sets it up for Shishkin, he might just not be the only one overtaking at the finish..

FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE 2.30: Happygolucky, solid – I did like The Wolf till seen sire stats & now prefer Pym & Vintage Clouds EW

CHAMPION HURDLE 3.05: Haves wung back to Epatante, JP pulled his other 2 entries out & she was a good winner last year. This race could well be a case of ‘always bet on potential except in the best of races’ and last years’ running remains the best form on show. Willie Mullins thinks James Du Berlais, on his French form & rating is 1st 4 material, could be an interesting EW fun bet at 29/s if anyone offering extra places?

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE 3.40: Nothing wrong with Indefatigable again I think: 

BOODLES JUVENILE HURDLE 4.15: Nassalam dg figs 20/s like bar weight & makes me think Elham Valley may do better against him in a h’cap only 4lb between them so odds silly? EW shot 50/s – hardest race I looked at – this a majority race for a quick return to the track – would like to see Homme Public run well. 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE 4.50: Trainer, Ben Pauling, has won the race before and quite bullish about the chances of Nestor Park EW fun

Last year: & the evicted: NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE 
Tuesday

Metier

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE with previous years:

1.20: – 80% fav will lose – 75% W Mullins horses not to place & no 7yo since 2008, Captain Cee Bee, 13 years lucky for some but

Metier, I think bc

Weds before meet & ground is changed to ‘gd – so with this race now very little to go on regarding figures – it’s been thrown to the void a bit you might think:

Well, I could be wrong but just looking at the last few winners:

2020 Shishkin by Sholokov (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) close 2nd, Abacadabras by Davidoff (Ger) by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells – 

2019 Klassical Dream (Fr) by Dream Well (Fr) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

2018 Summerville Boy (Ire) by Sandmason & a bit different?

2017 Labaik (Fr) by Montmarte (Fr) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2016 Altior (Ire) by High Chaparral (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA) 

2015 Douvan (Fr) by Walk In The Park (Ire) by Montjeu (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells (USA)

So 5 of the last 6 winner’s sires have traced back to Sadler’s Wells (USA) – Ballyadam, [Bob Olinger 150OR & Soaring Glory are all similar in that respect whereas Metier – all better TopSpeed than Appreciate It too], his dam is by Authorized, by Montjeu by Sadler’s Wells (USA). 

Jeremy’s, Mister Fister Fisher 14/1, 2019 145OR, only one I can find…

Then there’s the Dosage Index, not an exact science but again, looking at the previous winners: 

OK, he is my top rated by 1lb & 2 by the rpr – he is 8lb below top according to the RP’s TopSpeed but fav’s got 80% chance of losing, 80% chance the winner will trace its lineage to Sadler’s Wells which 4 of the next 5 in betting do – more than 80% chance a 7yo won’t win& then there’s the Dosage Index & probably the reason he didn’t win last year too. Bearing in mind he has a DI of 3 just look at the DI column here, biggest in 12 is 2. Form anywhere else us pretty much insignificant. The hill after a fast pace 2 miles+ is the crunch & his breeding & his run last year, pretty much prove it. So, 6/4, value is it? I’m preparing an old pair of shoes to eat just in case..GL

And ‘erm: Appreciate It & Mister Fisher are very similar: 

And no winners with a Dosage Index of ‘3’ and hardly any with so few points. My guess is that it’s going to take one hell of a ride….?

Trends: 

Won last time – 9/10 won last x 1 6th – 

From: 3/10 Leop rest various – 

Trainer 4 Race:

No. of Days: 

Odds – Mostly between 5 & 12/s last year Shishkin was 5/2f fc won at 6/s

Age: You have to go back to 2008 to Captain Cee Bee for someone older than 6 winning so another serious negative for Appreciate It?

Wght/OR:

TopSpeed Adjusted / rpr Adjusted

Breds: French 5 Irish 5 GB 1

Inbreds: 7 of 11 Yes! 

Dosage:  Just about anything unlike Appreciate It:

Oh & just one more thing: I’ve started a new spreadsheet for those little sire/course observations: I’ve highlighted – a kind of WARNING! ‘Possible Lay material’ Reddish, those with more than 20 runners with less than 10% SR. Probably be shouting for Metier & Grumpy Charley EW, go on lad. Just another 50 odd plus courses to do… GL

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