Just ‘Breeding’ Perfick!

Posted: October 7, 2019 in Uncategorized

Always easier in hindsight but I did tip the winner on Facebook and by the look of it, like Dave Nevison, mainly for a place, I mean, odds on at a place with such abysmal stats for favourites – why not? He was 4th last year and had been having a better year this. With very soft ground forecast and possibly more rain to come, in a true run race as the Arc invariably is, there must be a chance he could outstay her…

And so it proved and fully vindicated on dosage points [oh look! By way of total coincidence, the Strad is Magna Grecia in disguise] too… And even if you use Average Winning Distances of sire and dam-sire combined, Waldgeist, had a bit extra. And while Timeform’s Tony McFadden suggests:

“Testing ground placed the emphasis firmly on stamina, and the undisputed staying king, would have been an interesting contender.”

The figures below tell me he would’ve come up short on the testing ground and would’ve had more chance on better – strikes me he is a speedier type carrying his class further over inferior runners. Anyone would think John Gosden knew what he was doing? Willing to be proven wrong and hope there’s better ground next year and they give it a go but in the midst of the ‘Glorious Uncertainty,’ that is racing – who knows what’s round the corner?

Waldgeist – Sire
Galileo (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam
Waldlerche (GB)
Dam’s Sire
Monsun (GER) (12.3f)
AWD TOT/2 11.75f
DP = 3-0-19-16-0 (38) DI = 0.49 CD = -0.26
Enable – Sire
Nathaniel (IRE) (11.9f)
Dam
Concentric (GB)
Dam’s Sire
Sadler’s Wells (USA) (11.4f)
AWD TOT/2 11.65f
DP = 4-0-19-11-2 (36) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.19
Stradivarius – Sire
Sea The Stars (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam
Private Life (FR)
Dam’s Sire
Bering (GB) (10.1f)
AWD TOT/2 10.65f
DP = 2-3-15-4-0 (24) DI = 1.09   CD = 0.13

Hard to watch? Click pic to watch race – https://twitter.com/TWEnclosure/status/1181156368063041538

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This is what I mean by a fast time, looking at the comparison per furlong, she has ran 0.23 [0.01 = 1lb] seconds per furlong faster and carried 9lb [23+9 = 32lb] more than a regular 85 performer in Strait Of Zanzibar, I think I have erred on the side of caution giving her 109 but she could quite easily be worth 117, making her pattern class material.

Looks like the Racing Post have erred on the side of caution too, a whopping girt 90 lol….

Sunday June 5th 2016 – gf Listowel

6TFLtv9fWtTiWc7SxK73M45MpESG2c1UB_zg2tPKTcuNFWsjyXTKwoDhEoDAh-j4s2BKPVPTpmoqhbq_hjMJ6E0s-WLYCP15Xqj_2q-YA5Dt2rUQ5jBfcKTqBxMV2GGGUx3szajG

3:05 – George Fitzmaurice Handicap

7f, €6,150.00
1 Suvenna 9/2
2 Zebgrey 10/1
3 Shepherds Crook 9/1
NR: Drillmaster (USA)
12 ran Distances: 3½l, 2l, nk
TIME 1m 28.40s (slow by 0.40s)
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: M Halford

Another Tri-cast escapes me at Uttoxeter yesterday:

TS rpr 420 2 C (0-146)
qm 153
6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds drw
92 Such A Legend 10-3 113 125 138 100 96 74 138 138 96 125 120 82 67 50
113 Minella Present 11-0 115 92 98 113 108 113 108 120 120 116 79 65 48
131 Germany Calling 11-3 49 118 93 131 78 94 131 131 93 118 114 112 101 66
138 Ruben Cotter 11-8 100 143 112 110 66 138 138 143 143 95 32 42 25
139 Carrigmorna King 11-8 139 59 112 138 104 91 138 139 139 93 31 41 24
97 Kie 11-4 62 94 139 37 116 97 139 139 139 93 139 83 49
137 Easily Pleased 10-3 112 99 87 95 141 142 132 91 137 32 69
123 Cloud Creeper 11-10 123 116 82 104 108 123 123 119 31 91 121 98 62
125 Henryville 11-12 150 87 107 104 125 125 150 107 86 29 38 22
114 Dare Me 11-10 114 92 107 114 126 110 79 118 104 57
128 Dormello Mo 11-9 128 121 112 90 113 88 128 132 88 73 110 97 64
115 Long House Hall 11-9 105 93 115 92 102 102 115 93 69 104 65 58
110 Pair Of Jacks 11-4 105 105 110 57 85 85 105 85 63 95 84 55

4:20 – Sir Stanley And Lady Clarke Chase Handicap Chase (for the Sir Stanley And Lady Clarke Trophy)

2m4f, Class 2, £16,245.00
1 Minella Present 9/1
2 Such A Legend 16/1
3 Germany Calling 12/1
13 ran Distances: 1l, nk, 1½l
TIME 4m 56.20s (slow by 7.20s)
Jockey: Wayne Hutchinson
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
WIN £11.80 PL £4.30, £4.80, £4.70
Ex £169.50
CSF £132.05
TRICAST £1736.95

There’s me striving to get the formatting right on other angles such as #CDG & One Trick Trainers and my own ratings go and have a field day – somehow they are going to have to be incorporated….?

530 5 H am’s (0-100) RATING ODDS
Magnolia Ridge
future hurdler Sep 13 – TDS
135 10/1
Lord Of Drums
XoM as c (std +6.10s)[0.16spf clr o card] PB 117+ +? 74dys 16gf Perth +10+ Imp’d Jul 13 –
129
Bygones For Coins 129
Martin Chuzzlewit 127
Definitely Glad 126
Hey Bob 117
Henry Oliver 114
Ange Des Malberaux 107
300 4 H m’s (0-115) qm 122 RATING ODDS
Sultana Belle
Ger bred –
150 12/1
Taylor
NHF 5k+ 1st3 2nd start 144dys 17gs Chelt Apr14 – NHF 5k+ 1st4 16ggs Nav > Listed E’d FTO Nov13 –
140
Fairy Theatre 117
Beyondtemptation
C5 L Am’s ‘lucky 7dys 20gs Cat +9 Imp’d Mar16 – C5 WW MA gd p 18dys 16s Ncs Dec14 – mare
112
Monbeg Dolly 111
Double Accord 111
230 5 C (0-100) QM 106 RATING ODDS
Sharivarry 152 8/1
Benefit In Kind
xom as c 7R C4wk WW J* 9dys 24g Mus Dec14 –
140
Proud Gamble
8R C5 WW HU fr p h’cap 4th c st 9dys 24s Mus +19 Imp’d Feb16 –
140
Apache Pilot
+12 Imp’d 24s Mus Feb16 –
138
Blueside Boy
Lightly raced – 1/4 ptp 24g May12 –
132
Frank The Slink 126
Runswick Days
xom as c 14dys 20s Sed CD2 Nov14 – Lightly raced – 07Class!
123
Suzy’s Music 119
Generous Chief 118
Rosquero
+12 Imp’d 16s Carl Apr14 –
112
Brother Scott 112

4/1+ only plz

Mr Witmore (IRE) Michael Smith 2:00 13 1
West Ship Master (IRE) Paul Stafford 3:30 237 1
Sybil Grey George Bewley 4:30 40 1
Ange Des Malberaux (FR) James Ewart 5:30 48 1
TS rpr 230 5 C (0-99) qm 106 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
99 111 Suzy´s Music 11-5 46 71 57 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 76 105
92 105 Apache Pilot 10-6 34 37 97 93 97 93 97 93 94 95 31 99
88 111 Benefit In Kind 10-9 87 44 52 54 88 88 89 96 87 91 93 47 100
93 109 Brother Scott 11-11 91 85 93 19 47 93 91 82 93 89 87 53 101
53 108 Runswick Days 10-7 90 38 53 53 70 97 99 89 84 18 81
Sharivarry 10-3 68 68 120 68 68 85 94 0 0
93 109 Generous Chief 11-6 44 87 93 87 96 69 84 92 29 101
46 93 Glenwood Prince 10-0 43 53 50 53 78 78 53 70 78 34 70
88 105 Rosquero 11-12 72 27 88 81 88 81 88 56 41 56 97
98 108 Proud Gamble 10-6 31 99 99 65 99 0 55 82 33 103
54 107 Frank The Slink 11-8 54 54 64 97 54 81 18 81
77 102 Blueside Boy 10-0 44 84 31 84 92 37 0 43 65 53 90
TS rpr 300 4 H m’s (0-115) qm 122 weak? 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
94 116 Sultana Belle 10-0 101 32 31 52 94 41 101 101 135 101 112 118 62 105
96 121 Taylor 10-11 84 70 66 66 75 63 96 107 104 63 91 106 68 109
98 114 Daytripper 11-2 28 35 63 98 98 98 98 63 86 98 65 106
72 117 Beyondtemptation 11-12 64 68 71 34 63 72 87 72 84 72 76 78 56 95
74 115 Fairy Theatre 11-4 19 68 67 74 32 74 68 74 74 72 71 35 95
89 115 Toarmandowithlove 10-0 96 74 68 96 87 96 0 61 92 47 102
68 116 Lilywhite Gesture 10-5 70 66 31 70 89 89 59 89 32 92
69 111 Monbeg Dolly 11-6 88 69 69 69 23 35 52 90
80 117 Double Accord 11-1 64 54 80 39 80 39 13 20 40 99
53 103 Miss Blanche 10-11 36 26 53 53 26 9 13 26 78
Strategic Island 10-1 40 61 0 0 0 34 0
TS rpr 330 5 C Nov (0-100) qm 105 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
78 106 West Ship Master 10-8 63 76 37 78 78 78 127 87 97 103 38 92
98 108 Whatsthestoryman 11-1 53 39 42 63 85 98 98 98 98 85 94 98 82 103
The Ice Factor 11-9 45 45 51 53 53 90 100 51 80 95 35 0
48 107 Nosey Box 11-12 37 18 45 45 54 83 91 76 69 21 78
70 89 Mr Shahady 10-7 34 70 70 109 109 73 109 23 80
94 105 Seventeen Black 10-8 70 74 55 80 58 83 94 39 83 83 68 61 74 100
Candelita 11-2 37 23 61 47 61 112 72 61 92 36 0
65 108 Reverse The Charge 10-0 35 72 36 72 48 36 72 52 42 12 87
Garde Ville 10-1 44 73 84 79 37 79 84 48 44 66 39 0
104 106 Dundee Blue 10-0 97 61 97 0 61 0 20 31 53 105
TS rpr 430 5 h (0-100) qm 107 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
83 110 Solway Sam 11-2 65 49 31 79 69 28 83 135 106 105 115 17 121 59 97
William Money 11-1 43 45 91 91 101 101 91 98 101 45 0
84 111 Bourne 11-9 83 84 35 35 84 130 92 69 97 111 51 98
70 86 George Fernbeck 11-12 65 37 70 20 70 103 78 103 95 91 30 78
66 103 Master Murphy 10-3 34 70 70 77 94 94 88 86 23 85
68 106 Wyfield Rose 10-6 32 69 69 96 69 68 78 83 23 87
32 101 Next Hight 11-2 71 37 58 49 32 32 71 71 69 70 71 46 67
45 105 Latest Fashion 10-0 52 35 52 52 0 52 35 26 12 75
85 95 Sybil Grey 11-4 11 85 85 85 28 43 32 90

Remember, we’re only interested @ 4/1+

Noble Act Rae Guest 3:15 130 1
Free Bounty Philip McBride 4:15 132 1
Hope You Dance (FR) David Simcock 4:45 130 1
Pirate´s Treasure James Tate 5:15 132 1
Dommersen (IRE) John Gosden 5:15 131 1
Miss Lillie Roger Teal 5:45 97 1
TS rpr 1545 6 Clm (75- 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
94 Long Awaited 9-5 84 49 75 66 67 75 82 103 82 89 93 44 47
78 92 Come On Dave 10-0 72 47 72 78 75 67 78 89 89 63 80 89 73 85
Clumber Street 9-5 49 19 77 84 57 84 84 19 62 84 73 0
TS rpr 445 5 (0-75) qm 87 weak? 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
71 84 Percys Princess 8-11 71 47 59 60 59 52 81 81 73 81 78 7 77 57 78
71 89 Hope You Dance 8-12 45 49 26 71 46 71 71 71 71 71 71 39 80
72 80 Rum Swizzle 8-13 72 44 65 80 52 80 72 72 65 70 72 44 76
65 86 Bayan Kasirga 9-7 37 65 51 65 13 63 65 65 74 65 68 70 47 76
70 87 Ickymasho 9-7 41 44 44 65 70 73 73 70 65 65 67 68 69 79
48 87 Eager Beaver 9-7 70 35 48 53 48 34 79 79 48 49 59 64 45 68
22 86 Lady Clitico 9-3 61 23 35 54 14 22 61 22 71 22 38 47 30 54
86 Enchanted Moment 9-0 24 49 48 29 49 0 0 42 43
TS rpr 515 4 3y (0-84) qm 96 weak? 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
91 94 Jintshi 8-12 50 74 91 34 38 63 91 91 91 91 91 91 45 93
77 92 Winged Dancer 8-13 53 53 77 72 35 58 77 77 72 72 74 75 55 85
78 97 Pirate´s Treasure 9-3 49 63 78 47 67 78 78 47 67 64 63 38 88
72 97 Status Quo 9-0 38 43 72 72 72 72 48 36 51 85
71 97 Ballard Down 9-7 53 71 89 89 71 24 36 71 84
60 93 Dommersen 9-3 44 60 60 60 20 30 35 77
94 Winter Rose 9-6 68 81 87 80 35 82 87 0 0 66 47
TS rpr 545 6 (0-59) qm 71 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
55 70 John Potts 8-7 38 51 22 50 46 55 55 85 80 85 83 7 83 50 63 11y
54 72 Miss Lillie 9-7 54 22 23 23 27 59 59 76 76 76 76 76 36 63
60 70 Ferryview Place 9-1 41 38 37 15 60 26 60 78 56 78 71 67 34 65
59 71 Outlaw Torn 9-7 15 59 52 67 70 68 70 69 69 37 65
53 74 Filament Of Gold 9-3 38 39 53 36 53 70 68 68 69 69 12 64
66 74 Evervescent 9-7 34 12 35 66 38 61 72 66 59 66 64 63 55 70
56 71 Schottische 9-3 26 47 48 56 61 71 56 64 64 64 19 64
64 71 Zed Candy Girl 9-7 32 64 54 35 19 42 64 65 37 65 56 51 32 68
66 Mixed Message 8-12 43 39 22 44 44 78 84 54 81 22 33
48 70 Castle Talbot 9-4 48 43 32 35 44 53 65 48 65 44 52 57 44 59
55 72 Diamonds A Dancing 9-7 41 55 26 37 50 57 57 63 37 55 52 50 48 64
50 71 Barnaby Brook 9-5 55 49 43 40 50 50 59 20 30 44 61
Zephyros 9-7 43 43 0 0 14 0

& of course, being a couple of years younger than the others I backed Jinky….

TS rpr 3.05 Ayr 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
48 83 Go Go Green 9-9 68 67 43 24 30 48 68 91 82 77 83 87 34 66 10y
78 82 Captain Scooby 9-1 38 59 36 49 78 29 78 88 83 78 83 86 52 80 10y
63 84 Jinky 9-6 66 80 58 35 63 40 80 79 85 84 83 82 46 74 8y
75 82 Mo Henry 8-13 58 43 62 52 55 75 75 69 75 75 73 72 61 79
69 84 Vallarta 9-12 49 9 53 64 47 48 69 63 86 67 72 75 53 77
30 79 Blue Sonic 9-5 63 35 15 30 72 72 72 72 72 72 27 55
60 82 Secret Millionaire 9-0 45 71 52 52 60 57 75 60 95 46 67 78 56 71
67 83 Bop It 9-9 43 36 65 46 67 59 67 71 89 32 64 80 57 75
74 Alba Dawn 8-3 36 36 29 67 67 67 67 45 34 22 37
54 84 Sir Domino 9-12 37 15 47 21 54 54 54 54 36 54 41 69
60 83 Silver Streak 9-0 66 53 76 7 40 58 76 7 58 22 33 35 72
45 80 Toledo 8-12 43 64 58 30 62 64 64 21 32 31 63

One Trickster 4/1+ plz

Posted: May 23, 2016 in Uncategorized

Didn’t include the Curragh yesterday missed Mobsta but 4/1+ or not too bothered:

Czabo (GB) Mick Channon 1:55
Time Test (GB) Roger Charlton 3:40

Fake

Heresmynumber (IRE) Ali Stronge 2:10
To Begin Charlie Mann 2:40
Princess Roania (IRE) Peter Bowen 3:50
Hassle (IRE) Dr Richard Newland 3:50
Willem (FR) David Pipe 4:25
Lee Side Lady (IRE) Neil Mulholland 4:55

Notts

Also noted John Mackie’s name in the trainer for race a couple of times so could be worth keeping an eye on:

Hurry Home Poppa (IRE) John Mackie 3:25
Fire Jet (IRE) John Mackie 5:05
Inflexiball John Mackie 6:05

One Trick Trainers:

Dark Hero (IRE) Charles Hills 2:20
Silver Line (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor 2:20
Nam Hai (IRE) Kim Bailey 2:50
Strictly Carter Alan Bailey 4:00
Ladweb John Gallagher 4:35
Corpus Chorister (FR) David Menuisier 5:05
Arabian Night John Gosden 5:05
Beauty Sleep (IRE) William Haggas 5:05
Pure Vanity Roger Charlton 5:35
Galuppi J R Jenkins 6:05

I actually did a small RFC on https://twitter.com/ericwinners tip & my top rated Seraphima – he had already pointed out that last time small field winner More Spice was unlikely to get an uncontested lead & the favourite here had only won once in the last 8 runnings….

“5.10:     SUMMARY: I’m quite hopeful that this race could be won from the front with Frank The Barber my third top having the best draw and then the selection GIVE US A BELLE [CD5] 10/1 who is drawn widest of all but it the only other one that I think is fast enough to get to the front and if this one leads it will be hard to catch and the trainer has employed Adam Kirby to ride who has a thirty one percent win rated on her horses so it looks as though their expecting a big run so at the price I can bet each way as a form of insurance, the two at the bottom of the handicap are the two which should be staying on being my second and fourth top rated and are from the same stable but would need to improve to catch the selection.”

The cdg trick had it too:-

TS rpr Name 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg clr DG ts3 TR odds ff3
66 70 Secret Millionaire 9-6 40 48 62 66 65 32 76 91 96 76 88 94 54 68
64 68 Seraphima 8-7 41 64 22 53 56 64 72 78 72 74 75 44 66
64 71 Give Us A Belle 9-6 64 40 46 12 35 42 73 73 73 73 73 73 30 68
65 70 Rat Catcher 9-3 48 53 20 64 53 65 68 68 68 68 68 68 61 68
65 70 Quantum Dot 9-5 47 56 38 62 43 65 65 70 67 65 67 69 57 68
66 70 Very First Blade 9-5 54 37 21 39 66 49 67 67 66 61 65 67 51 68
64 69 Smart Dj 9-5 42 50 64 59 12 64 64 59 64 62 62 24 67
62 70 Frank The Barber 9-4 47 60 61 62 57 58 62 62 62 62 62 62 59 66
66 69 More Spice 9-5 45 50 43 36 66 66 66 66 50 61 66 48 68
63 68 Mountain Man 9-5 48 44 37 46 34 63 73 63 73 46 61 68 48 66
61 71 Fuel Injection 9-7 23 50 61 47 61 73 73 49 73 36 66

 

So busy concentrating on getting favourite beat never thought to delve a bit deeper, easily the next on my list to include in forecasts was the winner – so a 200/1 FC forsaken just to Lay the favourite tut tut.

 

510 6 (0-59) qm 71 five RATING ODDS
Seraphima – with HOT J Gordon & 5lb claim race could fall into hands of

drw2/10, C7 WW HU fr p 9dys 6sd W-aw Jan15 – mare

110 20/1
Secret Millionaire

XoM 7R C5 WW J* 12dys 5sd K-aw > 8R C6 driven 21dys 5sd L-aw Mar14 – 07Class!

109 11/1
Give Us A Belle

xom C6 RO prm gd p 14dys 5sd W-aw Mar – +11 Imp’d 5sd W-aw Jan15 – C6 WW MA/Comf 9dys 5sd W-aw [likes] Progrsv +18 Imp’d Nov/Dec – =PB C6 WW 12dys 5sd W-aw [likes] Nov13 –

102 12/1
Quantum Dot

C6 WW MA gd p 47dys 5sd W-aw ‘Progsv! Jan16 – C7 MA gd p PB 92+ drw2/9 5sd K-aw ‘ideal conds’ Feb15 –

101
Very First Blade

C6 WW HU fr p 96dys 5fs S-aw CD2 +17 Imp’d Jan16 – C6 drvn prm gd p [req’d?] 12dys tw 6fs S-aw CD2 Feb15 – C6 driven 25dys 5fs S-aw CD2 Dec – +14 Imp’d 7fs S-aw [likes] Mar14 –

99
Rat Catcher

+11 Imp’d 5sd W-aw Jan16 –

99
Frank The Barber

1 fr 24 Jan16 > OR 50 Oct15 –

96
Fuel Injection
91
More Spice

5R C6 drvn MA h’cap 5th st J* V* 26dys 5sd L-aw Jan16 – Lightly raced –

87
Mountain Man

+10 Imp’d 25dys6sd C-aw Jan16 –

82

 

 

 

Tricky day – hope this helps a bit?

1.30 Figures of the Irish contingent none too impressive – I’m with Parlour Games & maybe Beast Of Burden as a bit of a dark one EW.

2.05 No like race – most likely Don Poli but fun bet Adriana Des Mottes EW

2.40 Had to have a little on Rolling Ball as my top-rated & Skybet were 66/s, like the two favs but crap race for, prefer Dell Arca EW in the hope the blinkers can do the trick as they so often do for Mr Pipe.

3.20 BetVictor are 10/1 for new accounts about Sprinter Sacre that helps me decide the new improved Dodging Bullets is the one to beat today.

4.00 A return of glory days for Enda Bolger & Ms Nina Carberry me thinks with Quantitativeeasing EW a fair bet.

4.40 Have had to go with The Wallace Line 80/s Stan James & generally twice the price of other contenders on my figures, Golden Doyen (high in the weights?), Thunder Zone & Starchitect

5.15 Vigil respected but think my 2nd top-rated Stone Hard will improve past him & wont mind what the weather does. Still like Jetstream Jack as an EW alternative.