Big Race Targets Cheltenham

This is one of the first pics I took with the new digital camera – as I have in the past seen it effectively narrow the field and land a few races at decent prices and this year was no exception.

 

 

This was from the Imperial Cup edition of the Weekender.

By the Thursday top man was obviously Nicky Henderson, with Sprinter Sacre, Bob’s Worth, Finians Rainbow but I was gutted that I didn’t notice Une Artiste who was Triumph entered before she took the easier option of the Fred Winter, 40/1 but Willie Mullins did good too with a 1st & 3rd in Champion Bumper & what a horse that Sir Des Champs?

& Friday was good too, from the five who turned out for the Gold Cup, Synchronised, was there but from races with lesser entries, Brindisi Breeze & Salsify, were readily identified but the best result came in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap where the huge field was reduced to just one & that being the 20/1 winning, Attaglance.

Will most definitely be doing this again next year.

Following the ‘peaking’ 5yo’s of a Vintage Crop

OK, this is a bit of a mess but will tidy up gradually & sort in some kind of alphabetical order but the general gist is to watch out for improving & peaking 5yo’s under either code of racing.

A bold prediction for 2012 – ‘that there are going to be some flying fast 5yo’s this coming flat season.’ And some HOT hurdlers & maybe novice chasers by the end of the year….

It is said that a sprinter ‘peaks’ in the spring of the 5th year –

[Has something to do with muscle formation though - muscles required for sprinting develop later than others & it's another reason (besides the weight-for-age scale) that 3yo's do better against their elders at longer (10f+) trips than shorter. All stems from some research N Mordin carried out a few years ago / or rather, his theory to explain the results of his research.]

- if so – then that 2009 crop of Course Record breaking 2yo’s will be 5 this year. I note the 5f course record was broken by a 5yo, Ghostwing the other day & 5yo’s seem to be dominating the races at Meydan… There’s one going today @ Lingfield, Oasis Dream (bit short but interesting).

& won again since:

This was 2010 –

“It’s early days yet I know but I got a sneaky feeling we’re in for an interesting year considering:

3yo’s vs their Elders!

At Leopardstown on Guineas Trial day, the fastest race on the card was won by a 3yo, Baglioni(Ire), running against older horses.

At Kempton(aw) last week, joint fastest race was run by Mark Johnston’s 3yo, Duellist, (rated 81 & carrying 9-0), who clocked a time in a h’cap exact as the 4yo Shamwari Lodge(Ire), (rated 105 & carryiong 8-12) did in a Listed race for older horses.

At Dundalk the same day, Ed Lynam’s, 3yo Sole Power, had 4 older horses officially rated higher than himself held when running easily the time of the meet & a full second below standard.

At Musselbrough a day later, Bryan Smart’s 3yo filly, Esuvia(Ire), clocked time of the meet in a 3yo (0-73) while there was 3 (0-85)’s for older horses on the card.

& I’m not the only one who noted there were a lot more than usual 2yo Course Records broken last year.

17 Juvenile Crse Recs in 09 

3 @ York, 1 @ Newmarket, 1 @ Newbury, 1 @ Musselbrough, 1 @ Lingfield, 1 @ Leicester, 1 @ Haydock 1, @ Hamilton, along with the All Aged like Arcano @ Deauville too, 1 @ Folkstone,

& 4 @ Doncaster but that course has not been going very long & 1 @ Ascot similar story there too.”

 

And so it went on, the 3yo’s of 2010 had a very good year against their elders but also, Workforce, broke the track record at Epsom too.

But as someone readily pointed out:

“I think the majority of horses peak at 5, but we don’t see the class animals get to that age. The ones we do see tend to do well. A horse isn’t fully grown until it is 5.”

In which case we could see a vintage crop of hurdlers & chasers coming through?

& I don’t know why but I am sure I heard Mike Cattermole of Channel 4 quote Tom Segal in that he would be following 5yo hurdlers in h’caps this season.

Watch out for the 5yo’s this year!

For instance:

@ Bangor 29th Feb – 4/7 races won by 5yo’s inc:

3:25 - Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Handicap Hurdle

XoM (std +6.70s) 153 follow till beat! WW gd paced C2 32dys 20g Bang Feb 12 – 143+ PB +39 Improved Jan 12 – Ger bred 20f+ fav – DP = 3-2-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.57

2m4f, Class 2, £8,862.00

1 Big Easy 7/2 
2 Timesawastin 15/2
3 Cloudy Spirit 14/1

14 ran Distances: 1¼l, 11l, 2l
TIME 4m 35.30s (fast by 6.70s)

Jockey: Richard Johnson
Trainer: Philip Hobbs

This’ll be interesting – the Racing Post still not impressed after three ‘time-of-meet’s but also if the same stable’s Submariner, turns out for the big one, he was entered for this but what an improver!

4:05 - Al Maktoum Challenge R3 Sponsored By Emirates (Group 1) (Tapeta)

XoM PB 133+Comf 4l’s Gr1 19dys 10sd Meyd Mar 12 – xom PB 125 & comf 28dys 10s Meyd Feb 12 – XoM (std +0.12s Crse Rec) 118+ 21dys 10sd Meyd Jan 12

1m2f, £154,838.71

1 Capponi 9/1 
2 Silver Pond 12/1
3 Prince Bishop 9/1

NR: Jamr, Spring Of Fame (USA),Submariner (USA)

14 ran Distances: 4l, ½l, 2l
TIME 2m 3.05s (slow by 0.05s)

Jockey: Ahmed Ajtebi
Trainer: Mahmood Al Zarooni

Rpa – not impressed!

“A race with a classy roll of honour, so no great surprise it´s now a Group 1, but it is essentially a trial for the Dubai World Cup and it´s not satisfactory that such a contest has top-level status. Plenty have attempted the double, but only Dubai Millennium (2000), Street Cry (2002) and Electrocutionist (2006) have taken this en-route to World Cup glory.

[This year´s contest was ruined by an apparent pace and/or track bias. Just like in some of the earlier Tapeta races, it proved difficult to make upsignificant ground - at halfway the first four finishers were 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively. Treble Jig took the field to the 6f point in sectionals of 26.99, 50.62, 1.13.74, but he was soon beaten and is better at Jebel Ali.]

The last time CAPPONI raced in Britain he finished tenth in the 2010 Cambridgeshire off just 104. Clearly he´s made huge progress lately, this win following on from a couple of handicap wins off 105 and most recently 110, and the idea he was flattered last time was blatantly wrong. However, this latest victory, and the ease with which it was achieved, is hard to take seriously. Not only was he well placed, but his closest rival is a stayer, the third looks ungenuine, and the fourth hadn´t run for a year. Maybe he´ll prove in the Dubai World Cup he´s now genuinely top class, but that´s doubtful.

Silver Pond covered six meters more than the winner and lacked that one´s pace. He was going the right way towards the end of last year and there should be more to comewhen he goes back up in trip – basically this was a nice trial for the Sheema Classic.”

Over at Chepstow, a 5yo mare carries top-weight to win a h’cap chase:

4:55 - Smith & Williamson Handicap Chase

• Full result

2m½f, Class 5, £2,339.28

1 Lady Willa 4/1 
2 Kinkeel 11/2
3 Hector’s House 5/2F

8 ran Distances: 2l, 2½l, 29l
TIME 4m 23.70s (slow by 25.70s)

Jockey: Tommy Phelan
Trainer: Mark Gillard

2:50 - bluesq.com Cleves Stakes (Listed Race)

• Full result

6f, Class 1, £18,714.30

1 Oasis Dancer 6/5F 
2 Fratellino 25/1
3 Capone 6/1

11 ran Distances: ½l, ½l, 2¼l
TIME 1m 10.21s (fast by 0.09s)

Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Ralph Beckett

3:15 - Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)

xom as h =PB 148 Won Imperial Cup 4me! 92dys 17gs Sand Mar 12 – DP = 1-0-11-0-0 (12) DI = 1.18   CD = 0.17 07Class!!

2m½f, Class 1, £34,170.00

1 Paintball 20/1 
2 Nampour 11/1
3 Sire De Grugy 10/1
4 Rowan Tiger 33/1

24 ran Distances: 4½l, 4½l, nk
TIME 3m 55.60s (slow by 10.60s)

Jockey: Noel Fehily
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon

@ Newcastle last Saturday, the only 5yo in the field carries stop-weight & earns ‘time of the meet.’

2:55 - Betfred When Both Teams Score Handicap Hurdle

• xom as h 153+ made all 14dys 16g Newc & Scottish Champ Hdle a poss Feb 12 – cFR – Mussel suits rpa Jan 12 -

2m, Class 2, £9,811.50

1 Palawi 10/1 
2 Stormy Weather 3/1J
3 Cue To Cue 13/2

10 ran Distances: 2l, 3½l, 7l
TIME 4m 0.20s (slow by 19.20s)

Jockey: Dean Pratt
Trainer: John Quinn

& here’s one most definitely for the Notebook:

1:45 - Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet 1800 721 721 Maiden Hurdle

XoM (w 3x Gr2′s on card?) PB 145 made all 60dys 16s Naas & 07Class – Chaser? Res T* as H Feb 12 -

2m, €7,590.00

1 Play The Market 7/2F 
2 Spot Fine 7/1
3 Moyaliff 4/1

16 ran Distances: 3l, 4¾l, 4l
TIME 3m 58.40s (slow by 19.40s)

Jockey: R M Power
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington

Dubai Mar 2nd 3/6 races won by 5yo’s inc:

3:45 - Attijari Points Rewards Program (Handicap) (Turf)

XoM PB 125p 108dys 6gf Meyd ‘Gr & 07class’ Mar 12 – & easier grnd to suit too! DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71

6f, £67,741.94

1 Soul 4/1 
2 Invincible Ash 14/1
3 Al Sharood 8/1

11 ran Distances: 1¼l, nse, 1½l
TIME 1m 11.21s (slow by 1.01s)

Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor

Not for 40 years has a hurdler won this on their seasonal debut & already a dual ‘time of the meet’ [XoM] winner as a 4yo:

1:15 - Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) Grade 3

• xom as h 166 318dys 17gs Newb TST Feb 12 -

2m½f, Class 1, £86,848.75

1 Zarkandar 11/4F 
2 Get Me Out Of Here 14/1
3 Raya Star 12/1
4 Sire De Grugy 14/1

20 ran Distances: 1¼l, shd, 1¾l
TIME 3m 52.00s (slow by 4.00s)

Jockey: R Walsh
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

Cheltenham Festival Bumper 2012 Preview

After just hearing Don Cossack is now clear favourite for the Festival Bumper after his win today at Navan (& he looks to have clocked a good time too) – let’s just remind ourselves that there are some serious oddities within his pedigree that suggest too short a price may not be worth taking about his chances come March.

These are my pre-race notes for Navan – please pay close attention to his Dosage Index Make-up, emboldened:

2.05 1 gr2 nhf 4y+ (125+	RATING	ODDS
Shu Lewis Confirmed Oct > Possibly > 120 Punch May 11 – ? DP = 9-2-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.83 [4/4 wrong CB?]	135
Don Cossack Imprsv bumper w 19hy & +20 Improved for debut & trip & hvy? Oct 11 – Ger bred 20f+ fav – DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf CD = Inf [0/19 had no DP or Inf CB?]	130
	124
Bridgets Pet pos xom 111++/20lb? 19dys 18gss DownP Sep 11 – DP = 6-0-16-0-0 (22) DI = 1.75 CD = 0.55 [3/4 ok CB?]	118
	115
Rory O’Moore DP = 1-0-7-1-3 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42 [4/4 ok CB]	99

 

This is a table of the Dosage Make-up of the last 19 winners of the Cheltenham Bumper:

No. of says since last run: 0/19 <18 days

Age: 12/19 been 5yo’s rest 4 or 6yo

16/19 3 runs or less, other 3 had had 4 runs

17/19 had won last start

15/19 between 7/2 & 16/1 including one favourite.

Dosage Make-up	DP	DI	CD
DP = 2-2-6-0-2 (12) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.17	12	1.40	0.17
DP = 4-0-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.29	14	1.00	0.29
DP = 1-3-8-4-2 (18) DI = 0.80   CD = -0.17	18	0.80	-0.17
DP = 1-2-16-1-0 (20) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.15	20	1.22	0.15
DP = 9-3-22-0-0 (34) DI = 2.09   CD = 0.62	34	2.09	0.62
DP = 0-0-5-9-6 (20) DI = 0.14   CD = -1.05	20	0.14	-1.05
DP = 1-0-4-6-1 (12) DI = 0.33   CD = -0.50	12	0.33	-0.50
DP = 5-2-4-2-1 (14) DI = 1.80   CD = 0.57	14	1.80	0.57
DP = 4-1-14-1-0 (20) DI = 1.50   CD = 0.40	20	1.50	0.40
DP = 1-1-1-5-2 (10) DI = 0.33   CD = -0.60	10	0.33	-0.60
DP = 2-0-0-2-0 (4) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.50	4	1.00	0.50
DP = 2-9-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.59	22	3.00	0.59
DP = 0-1-6-7-0 (14) DI = 0.40   CD = -0.43	14	0.40	-0.43
DP = 0-0-4-8-6 (18) DI = 0.13   CD = -1.11	18	0.13	-1.11
DP = 6-0-2-4-2 (14) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.29	14	1.00	0.29
DP = 5-1-7-4-1 (18) DI = 1.12   CD = 0.28	18	1.12	0.28
DP = 4-3-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.92	12	3.80	0.92
DP = 9-3-16-0-0 (28) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.75	28	2.50	0.75
DP = 7-2-4-0-7 (20) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.10	20	1.22	0.10

17/19 7 or less first column on left

16/19 Between 10 & 22 Dosage Points

14/19 Had a Dosage Index 1.50 or less

16/19 Had a Centre of Distribution <0.60

13/19 Matched all 4 requirements above

16/19 Matched 3 or more.

Interestingly the ones more likely to have a productive future are those that matched all four?

As you can see Don Cossack is seriously going against the grain as none of the last 19 winners had zero Dosage Points in their make-up. Ascot’s Friday winner Shutthefrontdoor has arguably a better chance:

Claret Cloak – fresh, D, 7/13 Tips – favs poor record here though? Cracking 153+me FTO 16gs Winc Nov 11 – DP = 0-4-2-0-4 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.40 [4/4 Chelt Bump]

Shutthefrontdoor Got 133? on Uni std FTO 16s Ffos L? Bright future rpa Imprsv debut grnd suited Nov 11 – DP = 5-4-7-4-0 (20) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.50 [3/4 ok CB]

Here was the betting prior to Friday’s race for future reference:

Looking At Leopardstown’s Flat Finale 2011

First off, in the last: 4.05 – Rising Wind EW, clear top-rated on my figures, a Timeform Free selection, was 16/s with Paddy Power around midnight while 10.5 on Betfair, still floating around 12/14s but

There are three horses running today that might just prove last week’s effort at Leopardstown by the Racing Post’s Dave Edwards/Topspeed to be all wrong.

I’ve been pulling my hair out trying to make sense of this ever since:

Racing Post's Time Analysis

Their own comments in running in the Group 3 won by Nephrite, say about the fifth, Vault, ‘led at strong pace,’ he led until the furlong, where they must have all stopped to a walk to take in the scenery to come out with a Topspeed figure in the fifties. And Zaminast, who won the Listed race is supposed to have ‘quickened up in taking fashion’ to earn similar digits. I’m quite happy to accept that Born To Sea did not run to the 109 that I gave him for his debut and am fully aware that when a 2yo maiden is run in a faster time than two pattern races [even if it was a bunch finish, the first and second were 9th and 8th 2 out] on the same card, it can often pay to sit-up and take note.

Last week I posted on my Facebook profile that:

Today @ Leopardstown saw something a bit special! Thomasgainsborough, he not in Derby betting yet: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/the-derby I bet he is by noon tmoz!

1.40 Regulation – 2^nd start, poor draw & could be vulnerable to a big yard debutant? No bet but watch as in the next

2.25 Fatcatinthehat – led until the furlong pole last week [where the Racing Post's Analysis suggest that, 'more forceful tactics instigated an improved performance,' you wouldn't have gathered that from their figures!] & now has Johnny Murtagh’s assistance for the first time. Like (Nap)

3.00 Golden Hill – Hard to see him reversing placings with Call To Battle & Alla Speranza managed to quicken up in soft ground last time, I’d dutch them against him but it’ll be interesting to see how he does?

The Racing Post Trophy and the Dosage Index

This Saturday sees the 51^st running of the final Group One for two-year-olds – that of the Racing Post Trophy, 3pm, Doncaster and boasts quite a hall of fame amongst the previous victors, including three Derby winners in the last ten years.

The favourite has not won this race four times in the last 10 years, on three of those occasions the ground was described as heavy – so unless that is the state of the ground come  Saturday then the market leader pretty much has a six from seven chance of landing the odds, perhaps?

But I thought this would be a good race to apply the recent Dosage Index method put forward by our accomplice, Ben Aitken, from his most useful of blogs, Narrowing-The-Field, to do just that and sure enough, it did!

I dug up the last 18 winners and found a few parameters, I found that:

13 of the last 18 had less than 10 points in the first column of their Dosage Point totals.

13 of the last 18 had a center of distribution between 0.00 and 0.47

14 of the 18 had a Dosage Index of less than 1.49

16 of the 18 had a total of Dosage Points between 10 and 40

9 of the last 13 winners met all 4 requirements above and 2 of the other 4 were 3 from 4, 75%

Aidan O’Brien is what I call, ‘trainer for race’ as he has saddled five of the last 14 winners and boasts four of the nine horses remaining entered at the 5-Day Stage. Ladbrokes are probably right in being worst priced 6/4 (Hills, Paddy Power and Skybet are all above 2/s) about the Irish trainer’s, Camelot.

Being by Montjeu (Ire) – who has been responsible as sire of 3 of the last 7 winners, who in turn was by Sadler’s Wells (USA) who himself had a little purple patch of gaining 5 wins in the race within 10 years between 1993 and 2002 – there must be a fair chance of continuation.

But does he tick all the boxes as far as the Dosage Method goes? As it happens he is one of three that do as I have emboldened below:

In conclusion, a couple of possible EW shots in Learn and Farraaj, a couple of possible Lays in Daddy Long Legs and Fencing but if it ain’t heavy, then Camelot could well be our brother.

Early October and Cue The Jumps

The jumps season swung into life with the return of Cheltenham Bumper hero, Cue Card, making his debut over fences, bit of an anti-climax on the clock but he jumped well enough. At least it brought attention back to what used to be the traditional season opener in terms of meetings, it’s all gone a bit of a blur, what with all the summer jumping. It was left to Bob Buckler’s, out-of-the-handicap, Ethiopia, to run better than expected in the feature race at Chepstow.

King Of The Night for Paul Nicholls took the honours at Newton Abbot [likes the track & runs well fresh] but American Art has to be better than a seller and one for the notebook would be Stephen Hughes’ Den Maschine who can be rated 133ish if he recovers from his heavy fall when in with a shout.

On Sunday, some were surprised to see John Flint’s 4yo filly, One For Joules, runaway with what was supposed to be a (0-140) hurdle – the top-weight had a mark of 122 but she had clocked a whopping 149 from me in a claimer on a recent day-trip to Perth and came into the race as clear top-rated. She came out of the race with the best figures on the card for me and perhaps she would have a shout in a proper (0-140)?

It didn’t end there for the local trainer either as his Heavenstown in the bumper thwarted the most heavily backed horse of the day’s [Minella For Party] chances making for a hefty priced double for the father and son team. The first three  came 12l’s clear of the 4th and could be better than average – I know Roy Waterhouse, who was Tweeting [@jumpracing] from the course was impressed and if you click that link you should find an in depth, proper review of the meeting by now.

Over at Limerick we had a real (0-140) by way of the Munster National Handicap Chase which was won in good style by Noel Meade’s 8yo Flemensfirth gelding, Muirhead. On only his 4th start over fences from a mark some 20lb lower than his present hurdle rating of 152 [rated 158 Nov 09] he was fully entitled to win this and I can see him mix and matching between codes to try and preserve a fair mark and could easily turn out just as good, if not better as a chaser.

My little timepiece at least was quite taken with the running of Boland’s Corner in the preceding race, he’s likely to get lumped on by officialdom but not enough to suggest it’s all over perhaps?

And while Irish trainers made off with the bulk of the readies from Newmarket on Saturday it was nice to see another Welshman, Evan Williams, grab a few back in the finale. His promising young chaser, West With The Wind put up a fine front running performance to land the Grade 3 Novice Chase.

Excerpts from the Time Machine

Mauritino Best of Three Course Records At Ludlow

Fast ground no doubt as three track records were broken at Ludlow yesterday. The most significant of which would be the last, Jonjo O’Neill’s German bred, Mauritino (Ger) – who shaved a full 4 seconds off the previous as opposed to the other two who took around two seconds each off the former best times.

He earned an early estimate of 122p from me suggesting he ran 8lb faster than the class of the race and he certainly achieved the prestigious @themastarata accolade of ‘time of the meet.’

Oct 5th 2011 – gf/firm
GOING: GOOD TO FIRM (Firm in places) changing to FIRM (Good to firm in places) after Race 2 (2.40). Weather conditions: Cloudy.

2:10 – Welcome Back To Ludlow Selling Hurdle
2m, Class 5, £1,949.40

1 Baccalaureate 6/5F 2 Fool’s Wildcat 11/4 3 Agente Romano 5/1 NR: Danesman, Jim Tango (FR), Weet In Nerja6 ran Distances: 9l, 19l, 15lTIME 3m 34.60s (fast by 4.40s)
Jockey: Sam Twiston-DaviesTrainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies

Course Record. Hurdle after paddock bend omitted

The winner was bought in for 5,000.

3:10 – Betfair iPhone And Android App Handicap Chase

3m, Class 4, £6,256.00

1 Bold Perk 14/1 2 Calypso Bay 7/2J 3 Plunkett 5/1

10 ran Distances: 1½l, 2¼l, 2½l
TIME 5m 48.40s (fast by 3.60s)

Jockey: Charlie WallisTrainer: John Price
Course Record·

3:40 – Jubilee Restaurant & Boxes Handicap Hurdle 4y+ (0-114)

XoM (std +7.00s – Crse Rec by 4secs) FTC 122+me 14dys 21fm Ludl Oct 11 -

2m5f, Class 4, £3,249.00

1 Mauritino 2/1F 2 Malibu Sun 33/1 3 Great Mates 9/1

9 ran Distances: 4l, 1¼l, ¾lTIME 4m 51.00s (fast by 7.00s)
Jockey: A P McCoyTrainer: Jonjo O’Neill

Course Record. Hurdle after paddock bend omitted